News on The Race Lab

The Midlands National's Carnage Problem — And Why Backing Favourites Over 4 Miles Is Burning Money

Sun, 15 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Saturday’s Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter was hard to watch. Of 16 runners, 11 pulled up. The 10/3 favourite J’Arrive De L’Est was one of them, fading from contention five out and pulled up shortly after. Second favourite Aworkinprogress (9/2) found nothing from the rear and suffered the same fate.

Isaac Des Obeaux, a 28/1 shot having his first run beyond three and a half miles, galloped relentlessly through the carnage to win by eight lengths.

Cheltenham 2026 in Numbers: The Year the Formbook Burned

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

If you left Cheltenham on Friday evening with money in your pocket, you’re in a very small minority.

The 2026 Festival was, by the numbers, the worst for favourites backers in over a decade. We pulled every winner’s starting price from our database going back to 2015, and this year’s average winning SP of 14.50 is comfortably the highest we’ve recorded. For context, 2024 — a year widely considered punter-friendly — averaged just 7.70.

Five Seconds, Then Five Wins: How Mullins Finally Mastered the Gold Cup

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

For the best part of a decade, the Gold Cup was the race that tortured Willie Mullins. Five times between 2006 and 2016, he sent out the runner-up. On His Own was beaten by a short head — 0.06 lengths — in 2014. Djakadam finished second in consecutive years. Sir Des Champs had every chance at the last in 2013 before being outpaced. Hedgehunter plugged on into second back in 2006.

Heart Wood Wins the Ryanair Chase: De Bromhead's Quiet Cheltenham Dominance

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Heart Wood won the 2026 Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham this afternoon, giving Henry de Bromhead his first winner of this year’s Festival. Jonbon, stepping up from two miles, couldn’t land the blow, and the absence of last year’s winner Fact To File — withdrawn on the morning of the race — reshaped the whole contest.

It was a result most people didn’t see coming. But if you’d been tracking de Bromhead’s record in this specific race, you might have.

Il Etait Temps Wins the Champion Chase: Four Festival Runs, One Fall, and Finally a Cheltenham Winner

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Il Etait Temps won the Queen Mother Champion Chase this afternoon, beating Libberty Hunter under Paul Townend. The eight-year-old nearly threw it away with a mistake at the last fence, but held on to give Willie Mullins a third winner of the day.

The headline result is compelling enough. What makes it extraordinary is everything that came before it.

Three Festivals, No Cigar

Before today, Il Etait Temps had run at the Cheltenham Festival three times. He’d never won.

Lossiemouth Makes It Six From Eleven: The Champion Hurdle Has Become a Mares' Race

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Lossiemouth bolted up in the Champion Hurdle this afternoon, beating Brighterdaysahead by six and a half lengths under Paul Townend. A proper demolition job that extended her perfect Cheltenham record to five wins from five starts.

But the bigger story isn’t about one horse. It’s about what’s happened to the Champion Hurdle over the past decade.

The Numbers Are Stark

We pulled every Champion Hurdle result since 2003 from our database. In the first 13 runnings (2003-2015), zero mares won. Not one. A handful ran, none troubled the judge.

Sean Bowen's Festival Hoodoo: 52 Rides, Zero Winners, and the Numbers Behind Racing's Great Anomaly

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Sean Bowen heads to the Cheltenham Festival tomorrow as champion jockey. He’s ridden 1,252 career winners. He’s banging in winners at a 23% clip this season — 212 from 911 rides. He’s won Grade 1s at Aintree, Sandown, and beyond.

And yet from 52 rides at the Cheltenham Festival, he has precisely zero winners.

The Numbers Don’t Make Sense

We pulled Bowen’s complete Festival record from our database, and it makes for painful reading. Here’s every year since his first ride in 2015:

Galopin Des Champs Out: The Gold Cup Has No Obvious Winner

Sun, 08 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Willie Mullins confirmed it on Sunday morning: Galopin Des Champs is out for the season. Worked well on Thursday, wasn’t right on Friday. That’s racing.

But the timing — five days before the Gold Cup — turns what was already a fascinating renewal into something genuinely unusual. We went through 20 years of Gold Cup data in SmartForm, and there’s no modern comparison for a field this open.

The favourite problem

Since 2006, the Gold Cup favourite has won nine times from 20 runnings. That’s a decent 45% strike rate. But look at the winners: Galopin Des Champs (twice, at 7/5 and 10/11), Kauto Star (5/4 and 7/4), A Plus Tard (3/1), Long Run (7/2). Proven, dominant horses at the peak of their powers.

Henderson's Supreme Factory: 61 Grade 1 Wins and Counting

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Idaho Sun’s withdrawal from Tuesday’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle grabbed the headlines this week. A Grade 1 winner ruled out with lameness four days before the Festival — rotten luck for Harry Fry and connections.

But if you’re looking at who benefits most, the answer isn’t complicated. Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star was already 9/4 favourite. Now the path looks even cleaner. And when Henderson targets this race, the alumni list reads like a Hall of Fame.

Brighterdaysahead and the Cheltenham Problem: Can She Crack It at the Third Attempt?

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Eddie O’Leary doesn’t do fake optimism. So when he appeared on Nick Luck’s podcast this week and said he was “nervous, not excited” about Brighterdaysahead’s Champion Hurdle chances, it was worth paying attention. He used the word “hoodoo” — and the numbers back him up.

Two runs at the Cheltenham Festival. Two disappointments. In the 2024 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, she went off the 5/6 favourite and finished second, beaten 1¾ lengths by Lossiemouth. Ran keenly early, couldn’t quicken when it mattered. Last March in the Champion Hurdle itself, she was sent off 5/2 favourite, led before three out, and weakened to finish fourth — beaten 19½ lengths by 25/1 shot Golden Ace.

El Fabiolo and the Chasing Dropouts: Do Horses Who Quit Fences Actually Win Over Hurdles?

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

El Fabiolo won by 21 lengths at Leopardstown yesterday. Twenty-one lengths. Over hurdles. After a chasing career that ended with three falls in his last five starts over fences, including a grim sequence at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown last spring.

The nine-year-old looked like a different horse. Paul Townend barely moved on him. And the obvious question now is whether he turns up at the Festival in a couple of weeks, maybe in the Champion Hurdle or the County, and whether anyone should take the switch seriously.

The Age Wall: Why History Is Against Galopin Des Champs

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

There’s a genuine debate this week about whether Fact To File will be supplemented for the Gold Cup, with Willie Mullins pointing out that JP McManus sees the situation differently to the press and the punters. That’s an interesting storyline. But the bigger question — the one that doesn’t get asked enough — is whether Galopin Des Champs can actually win a third Gold Cup at the age of ten.

Dan Skelton Is Having His Best Season Ever — And the Festival Hasn't Even Started

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Protektorat’s win in the Premier Chase at Kelso yesterday was the kind of result that barely registers as a surprise anymore. A year ago, Dan Skelton saddled Protektorat to win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Now the horse is picking up Listed prizes as a warm-up. Business as usual.

But zoom out and there’s a bigger story here. Skelton’s 2025-26 season is comfortably the best of his career, and there are still four months of it left — including a certain four days in mid-March.

Ten Years of Beaten Favourites: The Greatwood Gold Cup's Curse Continues at Newbury

Sat, 28 Feb 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Vincenzo is 5/2 favourite for Saturday’s Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury. He was runner-up in the race last year, he’s won two of his last four starts, and Sam Thomas’s stable is flying. The obvious pick.

Which is precisely the problem.

A Decade of Market Misery

SmartForm data reveals that no market leader has won the Greatwood Gold Cup since Sound Investment in 2015 — a run of ten consecutive beaten favourites that includes some short-priced casualties:

The Champion Hurdle Nobody Wanted to Win: Constitution Hill's Exit Leaves Racing's Most Cursed Race Wide Open

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Michael Buckley called it “heartbreaking.” Ed Chamberlin called it “absolutely the right decision.” The numbers call it something else entirely: inevitable.

Constitution Hill’s official withdrawal from the 2026 Champion Hurdle — confirmed today, 13 days before the Festival — ends one of the most spectacular declines in Championship racing history. But here’s what makes this story truly extraordinary: he’s not the only star this race has broken.

Three Falls, One Flat Win, Zero Cheltenham

Let’s lay out Constitution Hill’s last five competitive runs over hurdles:

The King George Curse: Why No Horse Has Done What The Jukebox Man Is Trying Since 2011

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

The Jukebox Man won the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. He’s being aimed at the Gold Cup in three weeks. Sounds like a logical next step. The data says it’s anything but.

No horse has completed the King George–Gold Cup double in the same season since Long Run in 2011. That’s fifteen years of failure.

The Numbers Are Brutal

We pulled every King George winner since 2003 and tracked what happened when they turned up at Cheltenham in March. The results are grim.

Five From Six: Mullins' Stranglehold on the Triumph Hurdle

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Willie Mullins has won the Triumph Hurdle five times in the last six years. Read that again. Five from six. Vauban, Lossiemouth, Majborough, Burning Victory, and last year’s 100/1 shock Poniros. The only year he missed out was 2021, when Henry de Bromhead’s Quilixios took it.

That record would be remarkable in any race. In a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, where British trainers send their best juveniles every March, it’s borderline absurd.

Klub De Reve Wins Dovecote — But History Says Steady On

Sun, 22 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Klub De Reve put in a tidy performance to win Saturday’s Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton, beating Kocktail Bleu by three lengths with the well-backed Mustang Du Breuil back in third. Harry Derham’s horse has improved with every run this season and the step up to Grade 2 level didn’t faze him at all.

Bookmakers trimmed him into around 12/1 for the Supreme. On Racing Post comments, he’s already being talked up as a live outsider. And look, he might be. But before anyone gets carried away, we pulled the Dovecote form since 2012 and the Festival record of its winners is, well, not great.

Constitution Hill Wins at Southwell: The Data Behind a Remarkable Reinvention

Sat, 21 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

We wrote yesterday’s preview suggesting Constitution Hill’s Flat switch looked more like a desperate measure than an exhibition. We were wrong about the desperation part. Nothing about Friday night looked desperate.

Nine and a half lengths. Oisin Murphy sat motionless. The in-race comment from SmartForm reads like a horse operating in a different postcode to his rivals: “travelled strongly, midfield, smooth headway 2f out, soon ridden to lead, went clear approaching final furlong, stayed on well, impressive.”

Constitution Hill's Flat Debut: What the Numbers Say About Tonight's Southwell Novice

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

A horse rated 175 over hurdles, running in a novice stakes at Southwell on a Friday evening. If you’d pitched this storyline two years ago, you’d have been laughed out of the room.

Constitution Hill — twice Champion Hurdle winner, owner of a Cheltenham performance so devastating they called it the best since Istabraq — lines up tonight at 7:30 in a 12-runner novice on the Fibresand. He’s 11/4 second favourite behind the Kevin de Foy-trained Square Necker at 13/8.

Panic Attack's Grand National Dream: The Numbers For and Against

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

No horse had ever won both the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Coral Gold Cup in the same season. Then Panic Attack did it inside a fortnight.

We went through every winner of both races in the SmartForm database. Not one horse had doubled up in a single campaign — until this ten-year-old mare rattled off victories at Cheltenham on November 15th and Newbury on November 29th, improving from a rating of 135 to what is now 147 after her stroll in a Listed mares’ chase at Newbury in January.

The Numbers Behind Dan Skelton's Trainers' Championship Charge

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Dan Skelton doesn’t do press conferences. He doesn’t cultivate mystique. He just sends out horses — a lot of them — and an increasingly alarming percentage of them win.

With the season entering its business end, Skelton sits clear in the Trainers’ Championship race, and SmartForm data shows why: 127 winners from 762 runners this season at a 16.7% strike rate, with an extraordinary 43.3% of his runners finishing in the first three.

Lucinda Russell's Ultima Dynasty: Can King of Answers Make It Four From Five?

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Lucinda Russell doesn’t just have a good record in the Ultima Handicap Chase. She owns it.

Three wins from the last four runnings — Corach Rambler in 2022 and 2023, then Myretown last March — puts Russell alongside David Pipe as the race’s most prolific modern trainer. But here’s the difference: Pipe’s four wins came across 14 runners over a decade. Russell has managed three from just seven runners in four years, a 43% strike rate that borders on absurd for a 24-runner handicap chase.

Pure Steel Joins Mangan's Growing Cheltenham Arsenal

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 21:00:00 +0000

Jimmy Mangan doesn’t train many horses. He doesn’t need to. The Kerry handler runs a yard of just 12 active runners — and yet he keeps finding himself in the winner’s enclosure at the highest level.

Pure Steel’s 12-length demolition of his rivals in Sunday’s Rated Novice Chase at Punchestown was the latest reminder that Mangan’s small operation continues to punch absurdly above its weight.

The Numbers That Matter

Since the start of 2024, Mangan has sent out 12 runners in graded or listed company and won four of them — a 33% strike rate. For context, Willie Mullins, with the largest and most powerful yard in training, manages around 24% in equivalent races at Gowran Park, his local track.

Grand National 2026 Entries: Five Contenders the Data Says You Should Watch

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 18:00:00 +0000

The initial entry list for the 2026 Grand National dropped this week — 78 names jostling for 34 spots on April 11. Plenty of the usual suspects, a few outsiders with no chance, and a handful of genuinely fascinating stories buried in the form book.

Here are five entries the data says deserve your attention.

Panic Attack — The Mare Making History

Only 13 mares have ever won the Grand National. The last was Nickel Coin in 1951. Dan Skelton’s Panic Attack might be the best chance to end that 75-year drought.

Mullins' Gowran Park Four-Timer Shows the Cheltenham Machine Is Firing

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Willie Mullins sent four winners home from Gowran Park on Saturday — and if you’ve been paying attention to his record at the Kilkenny track, that shouldn’t surprise you in the slightest.

Impaire Et Passe, Storm Heart, Madness D’Elle, and King Alexander all obliged on Red Mills Day. It was a clean sweep that underlined both the depth of the Closutton operation and Mullins’ particular fondness for a course that sits just over the hill from his Carlow base.

Edwardstone Swerves Cheltenham for Aintree — But History Is Against Him

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Alan King confirmed after the Ascot Chase on Saturday that Edwardstone will bypass the Cheltenham Festival entirely. The Ryanair entry stays in the drawer. Instead, the 12-year-old will head to Aintree for the Melling Chase in April, a race King won back-to-back with Voy Por Ustedes in 2008 and 2009.

It’s a sensible move. Edwardstone ran a solid fourth in the Ascot Chase, chasing the pace and not quite getting home over an extended two and a half miles. King was characteristically honest afterwards: “He jumped super and it was a proper horse race. It was nice to see a ten, eleven and twelve year old fighting it out.”

Ben Pauling's Ascot Treble Caps His Best Ever Season — And Cheltenham Is Next

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Ben Pauling saddled a treble at Ascot on Saturday that underlined just how far his Bourton-on-the-Water operation has come. The Jukebox Kid took the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase by five and a half lengths, Mondoui’boy landed a novice hurdle, and Fiercely Proud — a 8/1 shot — completed the haul in a handicap hurdle.

It was a statement afternoon from a trainer having comfortably his best season.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Pauling has saddled 68 winners from 363 runners this term — a 18.7% strike rate that puts him firmly in the top tier of National Hunt trainers. More importantly, four of those wins have come in graded company:

Impaire Et Passe Returns From 291 Days Off to Win Gowran — Where Next?

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 18:00:00 +0000

When a horse wins on its first start in 291 days, you pay attention. When that horse is a former Cheltenham Festival winner with entries in the Ryanair Chase, Gold Cup, and Grand National, you pay very close attention.

Impaire Et Passe returned to action in Saturday’s Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park and got the job done in the style that has defined his career — held up, travelling sweetly, then finding plenty when asked. Held up in rear, he made a mistake at two out but kept on well to lead close home, winning the Grade 2 on heavy ground.

Alexei Joins an Exclusive Kingwell Club — But Is He Good Enough for the Champion Hurdle?

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Three Kingwell Hurdle winners have gone on to take the Champion Hurdle this century. Golden Ace did it just last year. Katchit managed it in 2008. Hors La Loi III in 2002. So when Alexei ground out a length-and-a-quarter victory over Rubaud in Saturday’s Grade 2 at Wincanton, it was natural to wonder whether he could be the fourth.

The honest answer? Probably not. But there’s enough in his profile to make things interesting.

The Numbers That Explain Why Jonbon Should Swerve the Champion Chase

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Here’s a stat that should settle the Jonbon debate once and for all.

At two miles and below over fences, Jonbon’s record reads 14 wins from 21 completed starts — a 67% strike rate. Excellent, but not flawless. At two miles and four furlongs or beyond? Three runs, three wins. Perfect.

Now consider this: at Cheltenham, across all distances, he’s 0 from 5.

Put those two numbers together and the conclusion is obvious. The Ryanair Chase, run over two miles and four furlongs at the Festival on Thursday March 12, isn’t just a viable alternative to the Champion Chase. It might be his best chance of finally winning at Prestbury Park.

Grand Geste's Haydock Love Affair: Sue Smith's First National Trial Winner in 26 Years

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 08:00:00 +0000

Grand Geste had every excuse to have a quiet afternoon. Pulled up at Doncaster last time, a novice chaser in a Premier Handicap against seasoned stayers, sent off 13/2 in a race the jolly Myretown was supposed to put to bed. Nobody would have blamed connections for lowering expectations.

Instead, the seven-year-old grey stayed on like a horse who’d been doing this for years, seeing off Top Of The Bill by 1¾ lengths in the William Hill Grand National Trial to hand Sue Smith her first win in this race since The Last Fling in 2000.

Haydock Grand National Trial: Myretown's Jumping Demons and the £500,000 Question

Sat, 14 Feb 2026 21:00:00 +0000

The William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial at Haydock on Saturday (3:15) has the lot: a cracking field of 11 staying chasers, a £100,000 first prize, and the tantalising carrot of a £500,000 bonus for any horse who can win this and follow up in the Randox Grand National at Aintree on April 11th.

It’s a race that asks serious questions of its participants. Three and a half miles around Haydock in February is no joy ride, and the form of previous winners tells an interesting story — Famous Bridge landed the prize 12 months ago but failed to kick on, finishing sixth in the Ultima and pulling up in the Scottish National.

Jonbon's 12th Grade One: Only Kauto Star Stands Above Him Over Fences

Sat, 14 Feb 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Jonbon broke hearts on Valentine’s Day — specifically, Pic D’Orhy’s.

The pair jumped the last together in the Ascot Chase, and for a stride or two Harry Cobden’s drive on the defending champion looked like it might be enough. It wasn’t. Nico de Boinville dug deep on the 4-9 favourite and Jonbon pulled clear to win by a length and a half, clinching a 12th Grade One victory over fences.

Tutti Quanti: Can Nicholls' Rapidly Improving Hurdler Gatecrash the Champion Hurdle?

Sat, 14 Feb 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Paul Nicholls doesn’t do things quietly. After Tutti Quanti demolished a strong field in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last Saturday, the 14-time champion trainer dropped a bombshell: the Champion Hurdle is under serious consideration.

“We’re going to really consider the Champion Hurdle if it keeps on raining and the ground is on the slow side,” Nicholls wrote in his Betfair blog this week. “The way he won last Saturday suggests he’s rapidly improving and when they’re improving you never know where their ceiling might be.”

Pic D'Orhy's Ascot Love Affair Makes Him the Danger to Jonbon in Saturday's Grade 1

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Jonbon is the story everyone wants to tell on Saturday. With 11 Grade One victories already in the bank after his remarkable Clarence House revival last month, Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old is chasing history at Ascot.

But history has a habit of repeating itself in jump racing — and at Ascot, the history belongs to Pic D’Orhy.

The Ascot Specialist

Paul Nicholls’ ten-year-old has turned the Ascot Chase into his personal fiefdom. He’s won it twice — in 2024 at 13/8 and again in 2025 at 9/5 — and the manner of those victories tells you everything.

Barry Connell's Cheltenham Numbers Are Quietly Absurd

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Barry Connell trains a handful of horses on 45 acres in Kildare. He doesn’t have 250 in the yard. He doesn’t have a conveyor belt of six-figure store horses arriving each autumn. What he does have is a Cheltenham record that makes no statistical sense for an operation his size.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Connell has sent 56 runners to Cheltenham across all meetings. Three of those have won at the Festival itself: Marine Nationale in the 2023 Supreme (9/2), Seddon in the Plate that same week (20/1), and Marine Nationale again in last year’s Champion Chase (5/1). That’s a 5.4% win rate at the track overall, which sounds modest until you consider the calibre of races he’s targeting.

Mullins Arms Himself With Two Previous Winners as Grand National Entries Revealed

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 12:00:00 +0000

The initial entry list for the 2026 Randox Grand National has landed, and one name dominates the trainer column: Willie Mullins. With 15 horses entered — including the last two Grand National winners — the Closutton maestro has the Aintree showpiece in a stranglehold.

No trainer has ever saddled the last two Grand National winners simultaneously in the same renewal. If both I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett line up on April 4th, Mullins will be attempting something unprecedented.

Teahupoo's Cheltenham Record Makes Him the One to Beat in the Stayers' Hurdle

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Gordon Elliott doesn’t do ambiguity. Asked about his Stayers’ Hurdle team during the Sporting Life stable tour this week, the Cullentra handler was blunt: “Teahupoo probably sets the standard for me. Honesty Policy is the young one coming behind him, but I wouldn’t swap him.”

That’s a significant statement when you consider Honesty Policy won a Grade 1 at Aintree last spring and has been the subject of plenty of ante-post interest. But Elliott is right to back his older warrior — and the numbers make the case emphatically.

Dinoblue Heads Strong Mares' Chase Entry — But It's McManus Who Really Owns This Race

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0000

The entries for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival have been revealed, with 24 possibles declared — a stronger numerical entry than the previous two renewals combined. Defending champion Dinoblue heads the market at 7/4, with stablemate Spindleberry next at 7/2.

But look past the individual horses and a bigger pattern emerges. JP McManus hasn’t just had success in this race — he’s owned it.

Four From Five

Since the Mares’ Chase was introduced to the Festival card in 2021, McManus has won it four times from five attempts. Elimay (2022), Impervious (2023), Limerick Lace (2024), and Dinoblue (2025) all carried the famous green and gold hoops past the post first. The only year he didn’t win — 2021 — Elimay still finished second behind Colreevy.

Dinoblue and the McManus Monopoly: Why the Mares' Chase Is His Race to Lose

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 21:00:00 +0000

There are monopolies in racing, and then there’s JP McManus in the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase.

Since the race was introduced to the Cheltenham Festival in 2021, McManus has owned four of the five winners. That’s not a trend. That’s ownership of the race in all but name.

Impervious, Elimay, Limerick Lace, and Dinoblue — all carried the famous green and gold hoops past the post first. The only year McManus missed out was the inaugural running, when Colreevy won for the Flynns. Even then, Elimay finished second for him.

The Numbers Behind Walsh's Ryanair Hunch: Why the Data Backs a Gold Cup Swerve

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Ruby Walsh doesn’t do throwaway lines. So when he says one of Gaelic Warrior or Fact To File will “definitely” end up in the Ryanair Chase rather than the Gold Cup, it’s worth pulling the form book apart to see what the numbers say.

Speaking on the Paddy Power ‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ podcast, Walsh drew a comparison with Florida Pearl — a horse who dominated at Leopardstown but never quite got the Gold Cup trip. His conclusion: the extra two furlongs and a couple of yards at Cheltenham’s 3m2½f might just find one of them out.

Gordon Elliott's Cheltenham Arsenal: The Numbers Behind His 2026 Festival Assault

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Gordon Elliott had to wait until the very last race of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival to get on the scoreboard. Wodhooh’s victory in the Martin Pipe at 9/2 saved an otherwise frustrating week, but one winner from a yard that had 30-plus runners felt like underperformance from a man with 41 Festival victories to his name.

Four weeks out from the 2026 renewal, the mood at Cullentra House is markedly different.

Ireland's Cheltenham Charge: The Numbers Behind the Green Tide

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Less than four weeks from the first race at Prestbury Park, the battle lines are being drawn. The Guardian’s Greg Wood fired the latest salvo this morning, warning British yards that Ireland’s battalions are “ready to roll” — and the numbers back him up completely.

Fewer Runners, More Winners

Over the last three Cheltenham Festivals (2023–2025), Irish-trained runners have been outnumbered roughly two-to-one. They’ve turned up with 414 runners across those three meetings compared to 920 from British yards. Yet their win tallies have been remarkably close: 33 Irish winners to 50 British.

Oscars Brother: The Two-Horse Yard Taking Aim at Cheltenham's Brown Advisory

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0000

Connor King has 22 career runners in his database. Not 22 this season — 22 total. Five of them have won. That’s a 22.7% strike rate from a man who operates with just two horses in his yard.

On Sunday, his stable star Oscars Brother made it three wins from five chase starts when romping home by six lengths in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan, a race that has historically pointed runners towards the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham.

Marine Nationale's Champion Chase Defence: Can Connell's Hero Overturn a 19-Length Dublin Drubbing?

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 21:00:00 +0000

Barry Connell doesn’t do things by half. The former stockbroker who never sat on a horse until he was 30 has built a state-of-the-art yard at Boherbaun, complete with open barns designed around airflow and horse welfare. At the centre of it all stands Marine Nationale — two-time Cheltenham Festival winner and the horse whose Champion Chase victory last March carried an emotional weight that went far beyond racing.

That 18-length romp at Prestbury Park came just weeks after the tragic death of Michael O’Sullivan, the jockey who’d been instrumental in Marine Nationale’s early career. It was a day nobody at Cheltenham will forget in a hurry.

Cheekpieces In The Mix For Galopin Des Champs As He Bids To Reclaim Gold Cup Crown

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Willie Mullins is considering fitting cheekpieces to Galopin Des Champs for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup next month — and if he does, the two-time champion would join a surprisingly short list of horses to tackle jump racing’s biggest prize with headgear on.

The news, confirmed by assistant trainer Patrick Mullins, comes after a disappointing third in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 2, where Galopin Des Champs was beaten eight and a half lengths. It was his second consecutive third-place finish at the Dublin track, following a similar effort in the Savills Chase over Christmas.

Mullins' Grand National Empire: 15 Entries and a Three-Year Winning Streak

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 12:15:00 +0000

The Grand National entry list makes for familiar reading. Willie Mullins has 15 horses declared for the 2026 running at Aintree — and among them sit the winners of the last two renewals.

I Am Maximus, who powered home in 2024, is back for another crack. Nick Rockett, who stunned the masses at 33/1 last April, returns to defend his crown. Between them they’ve given Mullins back-to-back victories in the world’s most famous steeplechase. Add in his 2022 triumph with Noble Yeats and the Irish maestro has now claimed three of the last four Nationals.

Marine Nationale vs Majborough: The Cheltenham Rematch That Really Matters

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 09:15:00 +0000

The 19-length beating Majborough handed Marine Nationale at Leopardstown three weeks ago should have settled the Champion Chase argument. It hasn’t.

Barry Connell isn’t backing down. Neither is the formbook, which paints a very different picture when you filter for Prestbury Park.

The Cheltenham Factor

Marine Nationale is 2-for-2 at the Festival. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2023. Champion Chase defence last March. Two Grade 1s, two wins, two different types of ground — soft for the Supreme, good to soft for the Champion Chase.

Elliott's Boyne Hurdle 1-2-3 Rewrites Navan History

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0000

Sunday’s William Hill Boyne Hurdle at Navan will go down as a career highlight for Gordon Elliott. Not just because Staffordshire Knot justified 11/10 favouritism — but because Elliott became the first trainer in at least a decade to fill all three places in this Grade 2 staying contest.

Staffordshire Knot led home stablemates Better Days Ahead and Maxxum in that order, finishing 12 lengths clear of fourth-placed Colonel Mustard. The clean sweep wasn’t just a novelty. According to SmartForm data, no trainer has managed a 1-2-3 in the Boyne Hurdle since at least 2010, when reliable records begin.

Elliott's Boyne Hurdle 1-2-3: The Numbers Behind Cullentra's Navan Dominance

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:15:00 +0000

Gordon Elliott’s 1-2-3 in Sunday’s Grade 2 William Hill Boyne Hurdle at Navan wasn’t just a training performance — it was a statement of dominance that the numbers have been predicting all season.

Staffordshire Knot (11/10 favourite) led home stablemates Better Days Ahead and Maxxum in a Cullentra House lockout that left the remaining pair — Colonel Mustard and Henry de Bromhead’s Hiddenvalley Lake — trailing 12 lengths behind in fourth and fifth.

From Kempton to Aintree: Can Aswat Follow Blackmore's Trail?

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 18:30:00 +0000

Aamilah Aswat says riding in the Grand National is “still the dream.” After making history last week, that dream no longer looks quite so distant.

The 24-year-old became the first black female British jump jockey to win a race in the UK when partnering Guchen to victory in a handicap hurdle at Kempton on 2 February. It was her fourth ride under rules — all four have come aboard the same horse.

Elliott's One-Two-Three Signals Cheltenham Intent as Staffordshire Knot Hits Form

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 15:30:00 +0000

Gordon Elliott sent a message to the rest of the Irish training ranks on Sunday: he means business this spring.

The Cullentra House handler swept the first three places in the Grade 2 William Hill Boyne Hurdle at Navan, with Staffordshire Knot justifying 11/10 favouritism to lead home stablemates Better Days Ahead and Maxxum. The only other runner, Henry De Bromhead’s Hiddenvalley Lake, finished tailed off in last.

It was a statement performance from the winner, who has rediscovered his form in handicaps this winter after a frustrating 2024/25 campaign over hurdles.

Pic D'Orhy's Ascot Chase Hat-Trick Bid: A Race Against History

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Pic D’Orhy returns to Ascot this Saturday with history in his sights. Paul Nicholls’ nine-year-old is bidding to become the first horse ever to win three consecutive renewals of the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase.

The French-bred gelding has already achieved something rare. His victories in 2024 and 2025 make him the first back-to-back winner since Riverside Theatre completed the double in 2011 and 2012. But a three-peat? That would be uncharted territory.

Constitution Hill's Champion Hurdle Gamble: The Numbers Behind Henderson's Biggest Risk

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 09:15:00 +0000

The speculation has reached fever pitch. Will Constitution Hill line up in the Unibet Champion Hurdle? Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old superstar is pencilled in for a Flat race at Southwell on February 20 — a “glorified bumper” as Charlie Johnston described it — with the Cheltenham Festival potentially following three weeks later.

Ben Pauling, Henderson’s assistant, stoked the flames on Racing TV’s Luck On Sunday: “I would [run him in the Champion Hurdle]. He’s just so talented, and he’s got so much left to give.”

Lulamba Joins Elite Company: Can He Follow the Game Spirit-Arkle Trail?

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 06:30:00 +0000

Lulamba didn’t so much win the Game Spirit Chase as survive it. For three-quarters of the race at Newbury on Saturday, Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten novice looked anything but a 11/8 Arkle favourite. He was off the bridle early, not entirely foot perfect at his fences, and turning in you could have got decent odds about him seeing it out.

Then, between the third and second last, Nico De Boinville squeezed and Lulamba responded like a proper racehorse. The acceleration was instant, the jumps at the final two fences assured, and the six-and-a-half-length margin over Saint Segal at the line barely reflected his superiority.

Tutti Quanti's 12st Triumph: The Heaviest Weight Ever in the William Hill Hurdle

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 21:15:00 +0000

Harry Cobden barely had to move. Tutti Quanti simply galloped his rivals into submission at Newbury on Saturday, hitting the line fifteen lengths clear with theCommentary barely breaking stride. But it wasn’t just the margin that raised eyebrows—it was the weight he was lumping around.

Twelve stone. In a fiercely competitive two-mile handicap hurdle. First time ever.

According to SmartForm data, no horse in the modern history of the William Hill Hurdle (formerly the Betfair Hurdle) has won carrying 168lbs. The previous benchmark was 162lbs—a mark shared by five different winners including Glory And Fortune (2022), Iberico Lord (2024), and Paul Nicholls’ own Pic D’Orhy (2020).

Lulamba Follows Altior's Path: Does the Game Spirit-Arkle Double Still Work?

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 18:15:00 +0000

Lulamba kept his unbeaten record over fences intact with a six-and-a-half length win in the William Hill Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday, but it was the way he won that caught the eye — and the way he matches a pattern that has produced two of the greatest two-mile chasers of the modern era.

Nico de Boinville’s mount was giving weight to seasoned handicappers, jumped sketchily at times on the heavy ground, and was even off the bridle turning in. Yet when the serious business started between the third and second last, he found lengths his rivals simply couldn’t match. The market has reacted accordingly: Lulamba is now 11/8 favourite for the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival.

Wilful's Champion Hurdle Bid Faces Kingwell Test: Is 142 Enough?

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 15:05:00 +0000

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill will learn exactly where they stand with Champion Hurdle hopeful Wilful this Saturday, when the progressive hurdler steps into Grade 2 company for the BetMGM Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton.

The six-year-old has been a model of consistency this season, reaching the frame in all four starts and climbing from a handicap mark of 121 to his current rating of 142. That Windsor second last month — carrying top weight in a competitive Class 2 handicap — convinced connections the gelding had earned his shot at better company.

Tutti Quanti's 15-Length Annihilation: A Champion Hurdle Supplementary Shock in the Making?

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 12:30:00 +0000

Paul Nicholls knows a thing or two about extracting championship performances from handicap stars. Saturday’s demolition job at Newbury suggested he might have another on his hands.

Tutti Quanti didn’t just win the William Hill Hurdle — he brutalised the opposition. Fifteen lengths clear carrying 12 stone on heavy ground, the French-bred seven-year-old became the first horse to lift this prize under such a crushing burden. The record books didn’t stand a chance.

Vive La France: How French Raiders Really Fare at Royal Ascot

Sun, 08 Feb 2026 21:00:00 +0000

News that Nargiz, a Lope De Vega filly trained by the Xavier Blanchet and Mohammed Elbase team, could be aimed at Royal Ascot 2026 following an impressive maiden victory at Pornichet might raise a few eyebrows. The combination is hardly a household name in Berkshire. But the history of French raiders at the Royal meeting suggests punters should pay attention when Chantilly’s finest make the trip across the Channel.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Our analysis of Royal Ascot results since 2007 shows French-trained runners have posted a 7.4% win rate from 135 runners — comfortably above the overall meeting strike rate of 5.8%. The place rate is even more impressive: 29.6% of French raiders have finished in the first three, meaning roughly one in three hits the frame.

Henderson vs Nicholls at Cheltenham: The Numbers Might Surprise You

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are two of the biggest names in British jump racing. Both train large strings, both target Cheltenham as the centrepiece of their season. But their recent records at Prestbury Park tell very different stories.

The Raw Numbers (Since 2020)

Trainer	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate
N J Henderson	337	44	13.1%
P F Nicholls	102	5	4.9%

Henderson has been three times more effective at Cheltenham than Nicholls over the past five years. That’s a stark difference between two yards operating at similar levels of resource and reputation.

Why Handicap Debutants Are Worth a Second Look

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 08:45:00 +0000

The handicap system exists to level the playing field. Horses carry weight according to their ability, theoretically giving every runner an equal chance. But what happens when a horse steps into handicaps for the first time?

Conventional wisdom says wait and see. The logic runs that a horse needs a few handicap runs before its true mark is established. Our analysis of over 340,000 handicap races suggests this caution is misplaced.

The Jockey-Course Combos That Should Be on Your Radar

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 14:00:00 +0000

Some jockeys at certain tracks aren’t just good — they’re operating at a level that should make them automatic considerations. Our database of results since 2022 reveals the jockey-course combinations with the highest strike rates from a minimum of 40 rides.

The Headline: Moore at Chester

Ryan Moore at Chester: 21 winners from 44 rides — 47.7%.

That’s not a typo. Nearly every other horse Moore rides at Chester wins. The tight, undulating Chester track demands precision and experience, and Moore has both in abundance. When he books a Chester ride, the market knows it — but even accounting for short prices, that strike rate is extraordinary.

The Jockey Factor: Who Adds Value at Which Course

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 11:15:00 +0000

Trainers get the headlines, but jockeys matter. A well-judged ride can be the difference between winning and finishing fourth. Our analysis of over 50,000 rides at Britain’s major tracks reveals which jockeys genuinely add value at specific courses.

William Buick stands out as the most reliable value-add across multiple venues. At Kempton, he rides 29.71% winners from 239 mounts. At Newmarket, that figure is 29.42% from 537 rides. These are not small samples skewed by a hot streak—they are sustained excellence over four years.

All-Weather Tracks Compared: Where the Winners Come From

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 12:00:00 +0000

All-weather racing keeps the show on the road through winter, and it’s easy to treat the five main AW tracks as interchangeable. They’re not. Our analysis of over 111,000 runners across the big five since 2022 shows meaningful differences.

The Win Rate Table

Course	Runners	Winners	Win Rate	Avg Field Size
Lingfield	19,018	2,117	11.1%	9.1
Newcastle	23,170	2,440	10.5%	9.8
Wolverhampton	25,787	2,688	10.4%	9.5
Southwell	22,594	2,298	10.2%	9.8
Kempton	20,578	2,065	10.0%	10.1

Lingfield: The Specialist’s Track

Lingfield tops the table at 11.1%, and the reason is structural. With the smallest average field size (9.1 runners), there are simply fewer horses to beat. The Polytrack surface at Lingfield also tends to produce more predictable results — form holds up better here than on Fibresand or Tapeta.

Wolverhampton vs Lingfield: The All-Weather Form Guide

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 10:00:00 +0000

The all-weather season is in full swing, and two tracks dominate the fixture list: Wolverhampton and Lingfield. Punters often assume form between the two is transferable. The data suggests caution.

Lingfield holds a slight edge in win rate at 10.91% versus Wolverhampton’s 10.40%. The gap is marginal, but Lingfield’s tighter turns and more pronounced kickback create different racing dynamics. Horses that handle Lingfield’s unique demands often find Wolverhampton straightforward by comparison.

The 15-30 Day Sweet Spot: What Race Fitness Really Means in Jump Racing

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 10:00:00 +0000

“He’ll be fitter for that run.” It’s a phrase you hear after almost every moderate performance over jumps. But does the data actually support the idea that recently-run horses have an edge? We looked at over 193,000 jump racing performances since 2022 to find out.

The Results

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win Rate
1-14 days	25,229	2,283	9.0%
15-30 days	68,317	7,354	10.8%
31-60 days	51,818	5,530	10.7%
61-90 days	12,103	1,054	8.7%
90+ days	35,691	3,215	9.0%

The sweet spot is clear: 15-30 days between runs produces the highest win rate at 10.8%, with 31-60 days virtually identical at 10.7%.

The 30-Day Horse: What Fitness Really Tells Us

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 09:30:00 +0000

Punters love debating fitness. Is a fresh horse sharper than a battle-hardened one? Does a long break help or hinder? We analysed over half a million runs from the past four years to settle the argument.

The 30-day window—roughly 25 to 35 days since last run—produces the best results. Horses returning in this bracket win 10.68% of the time, comfortably ahead of any other category. Their average starting price of 23/1 suggests the market has not quite caught on to the pattern.

The Cheltenham Festival Trainers Who Punch Above Their Weight

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 08:00:00 +0000

March means one thing in the racing calendar: Cheltenham Festival. While the spotlight falls on the big yards with their battalions of runners, the data tells a more interesting story about who actually delivers when it matters.

Over the past five years, Charles Byrnes has sent just 16 runners to Cheltenham and saddled three winners. That 18.75% strike rate tops the lot when you filter for trainers with a meaningful sample size. Byrnes does not flood the entry system—he targets. His horses average 15.6/1, so he is not landing short-priced favourites either. These are proper value strikes.