10 Years of Cheltenham Festival Data: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

We’ve crunched a decade of Cheltenham Festival results — every race from 2016 to 2025 — to find the patterns that matter. Not punditry. Not hunches. Just data.

Here’s what 425 races and thousands of runners actually tell us.

Favourite Win Rate: Better Than You Think

The festival’s reputation for shocks is partly myth. Over ten years, favourites won 30.6% of all races — meaning roughly one in three races is won by the market leader.

2022 was the standout year for market confidence — nearly half of all races went to the favourite. The festival has trended towards shorter-priced winners in recent years, which has brutal implications for betting returns.

Key takeaway: The favourite wins nearly 1-in-3 races across a decade. But backing every favourite at SP is a losing strategy — the market’s accuracy is already priced in.

What Price Does the Winner Come From?

Here’s the real picture on winner price ranges across 10 years:

The 4/1 to 8/1 band produces the most winners — over a quarter of all festival winners. The 2/1 to 8/1 range accounts for nearly half of all winners (47.8%).

Chasing shorts is costly. The sub-2/1 brigade (odds-on runners) wins only 8.9% of races despite being heavily backed. And while the big-price shocks make the headlines, 33/1+ winners represent just 5.4% of results.

Best value hunting ground: 5/1 to 10/1. You’re in the richest vein of winners without overpaying for the heavy favourites.

The Biggest Shocks of the Decade

Some winners were so unexpected they almost broke the form book:

Hunters’ Chases are clearly the land of outliers — three 66/1+ winners in that race type alone. But Poniros winning the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle at 100/1 in 2025 was genuinely extraordinary. That’s one for the record books.

Irish vs British: The Breeding Breakdown

The “Irish dominance” narrative is well-known, but how deep does it go?

Ireland-bred horses dominate, winning around half of all races every year. 2021 was their peak — 67% of winners were Irish-bred. French-bred horses have quietly become the second force, particularly since 2018, often overtaking UK-bred horses in the winners’ enclosure.

British-bred horses are in decline at their own festival. In 2020, just one UK-bred horse won a race. That’s a striking stat.

Over the full decade: IRE 216 wins (51%) | FR 129 (30%) | UK 72 (17%) | Other 8 (2%)

Age Profile: When Do They Peak?

The golden window is 6, 7 and 8-year-olds, who combined account for 64% of all winners over the decade. Seven-year-olds edge it with 106 victories — a quarter of every winner.

Four-year-olds can win (mostly in Bumpers and Juvenile Hurdles), and the occasional veteran makes the headlines, but the data is clear: if a horse is outside the 6-9 age bracket, they’re fighting the tide at Cheltenham.

Top Trainers: The Mullins Machine

There’s dominance, and then there’s this:

Willie Mullins has nearly double the wins of his nearest rival over the past decade. 72 winners from 644 runners. He’s not just the dominant force — he is the festival. Backing Mullins blindly would have returned a profit in many seasons.

The British challenge is led by Henderson and Skelton. Nicky Henderson’s 10% strike rate is elite by any measure — he just sends far fewer horses than the Irish yards. Paul Nicholls’ 6% strike rate tells a story of a trainer whose horses increasingly need different conditions to Cheltenham.

Gavin Cromwell’s 11.8% strike rate from just 68 runners is worth noting — small squad, big conversion rate.

Ground Conditions: Does Going Matter?

The festival has seen all four going descriptions over the past decade. Good ground accounts for the most races, but Cheltenham in March can produce anything — the 21 heavy ground races produced some of the most gruelling tests in the sport.

Winners come on all ground types, but horses that handle soft to heavy ground well are a significant asset at Cheltenham — nearly a third of all festival races have been run on soft or heavy going since 2016.

Key Takeaways for Punters

1. Favourites win 30.6% of races — respect the market, but don’t blindly follow it
2. The 4/1-8/1 zone is the sweet spot — 26% of winners, better value than the short-priced market leaders
3. Irish-bred horses dominate (51%) — French-bred second (30%), UK-bred third (17%)
4. Target 6-8 year olds — they account for 64% of all winners
5. Willie Mullins is the festival — 72 wins in a decade, 11.2% strike rate
6. Soft/heavy ground comes up regularly — horses that handle testing conditions are at a premium
7. Hunters’ Chases are shock territory — three 66/1+ winners in that race type since 2016

Data sourced from SmartForm database, covering all Cheltenham Festival races March/April 2016-2025. 425 races analysed.

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