Every horse that runs in a handicap race in Britain gets a number from the BHA handicapper. That number, the official rating (OR), is the handicapper’s assessment of that horse’s ability. The higher the number, the better the horse. A horse rated 100 is better than a horse rated 80, and the handicapper’s job is to assign weights that, in theory, make every runner’s chance of winning equal.
Whether that actually works is a separate question. But understanding how the system operates is genuinely useful if you bet on handicaps, which make up roughly half of all races run in Britain.
The basics
The BHA handicapper watches every race and assigns ratings based on how horses perform relative to each other. If a horse wins by four lengths, the handicapper calculates what that translates to in pounds and adjusts the rating upward. If a horse runs poorly, the rating might come down.
The conversion is roughly one length equals one pound at most distances, though it varies. Over five furlongs, a length is worth a bit more because the race is shorter and differences are compressed. Over two miles, a length is worth a bit less.
Once every horse has a rating, the weights for a handicap are set. The top-rated horse carries the most weight, and every other horse carries less according to the gap between their rating and the top weight. If the top-rated horse is rated 100 and carries 10st, a horse rated 90 carries 9st 4lb (the difference is 10lb, which equates to roughly 10 lengths on paper).
The idea is simple: make every horse carry enough weight to neutralise ability differences. In practice, it’s more complicated than that.
How horses get their initial rating
A horse gets an official rating after the handicapper has seen enough evidence to assess it. For flat horses, this usually happens after three runs. For jumps horses, it can take a couple of runs, though a particularly impressive debut might earn an immediate mark.
Before a horse is rated, it can only run in non-handicap races — maidens, novice races, conditions races. Once it gets a mark, handicaps open up.
The initial rating is often where opportunities lie. The handicapper is working with limited information, and first-time handicap runners frequently outperform their mark. There’s a well-known angle around “well-handicapped” horses dropping into handicap company for the first time. The stats bear it out. Horses running in their first handicap off an opening mark have historically shown a better return on investment than the general population of handicap runners.
That doesn’t mean you should blindly back every first-time handicapper, but it’s worth paying attention to.
What a ratings rise means
When a horse wins a handicap, the handicapper reassesses it. The size of the rise depends on the winning margin, the quality of the race, and the handicapper’s judgement about whether the form is reliable.
A horse that wins a Class 5 handicap by a neck might go up 3-5lb. A horse that bolts up in a competitive Class 2 by six lengths might go up 10lb or more.
This is where it gets interesting for punters. A rise in the ratings is essentially the handicapper saying “I think that horse is better than I previously thought.” The horse then has to carry more weight next time to compensate. Whether the rise is fair — whether the handicapper has got it right — is the question you’re trying to answer.
Sometimes a horse improves faster than the handicapper can react. Young horses, particularly three-year-olds during the flat season, can improve by chunks between runs. The handicapper is always one step behind because they can only react to what’s already happened. A three-year-old that wins by two lengths off a mark of 75 might go up to 80, but if the horse has actually improved to the equivalent of 90, it’s still well ahead of the handicapper. That’s a well-handicapped horse.
The reverse applies too. An older horse that wins off 85 and goes up to 91 might have just had a perfect day — the ground was ideal, the pace was right, the jockey gave it a blinder. Next time out on slightly different terms, it’s got 6lb more to carry and might not be able to reproduce the performance. That’s a badly handicapped horse.
The three-year-old weight-for-age allowance
This catches people out if they don’t know about it. In flat handicaps that mix age groups, younger horses receive a weight-for-age allowance to compensate for the fact that they haven’t finished maturing.
A three-year-old racing against older horses in May carries significantly less weight than its rating would suggest, because the WFA scale recognises it hasn’t reached full maturity. As the season progresses towards autumn, the allowance shrinks because the horse is getting closer to its adult weight and strength.
This means a three-year-old rated 90 racing in May effectively runs off a mark several pounds lower against older horses. By October, the allowance has almost disappeared. Smart trainers place their three-year-olds against older horses early in the season to maximise this advantage. Mark Johnston (now Johnston Racing) was famously good at this. You’d see his three-year-olds cleaning up in older-horse handicaps during the spring and summer.
Handicap bands and class
Handicap races are banded by class, and the class determines the rating range:
| Class | Typical Rating Range |
|---|---|
| Class 1 (Heritage/Listed) | 0-110+ |
| Class 2 | 86-110 |
| Class 3 | 76-100 |
| Class 4 | 66-85 |
| Class 5 | 56-75 |
| Class 6 | 46-65 |
These overlap, which matters. A horse rated 85 could run in Class 2, 3, or 4. In a Class 4 it would be near the top of the weights, carrying a lot. In a Class 2 it would be at the bottom, carrying very little. Trainers are constantly trying to find the right slot: high enough class to get a light weight, low enough to be competitive.
A horse dropping in class after a rating drop is one of the most basic handicap angles. If a horse rated 88 has been running in Class 2 races and its rating slips to 82 after a couple of poor runs, it can now drop into Class 3 where the standard is lower. If the poor runs had valid excuses (wrong ground, bad draw, poor pace), the class drop can produce a sharp improvement.
The long handicap
When a horse’s rating is below the minimum weight for a race (usually 8st in flat racing), it goes into the “long handicap.” This means the horse should theoretically carry less than 8st, but since there’s a minimum, it’s effectively carrying more than it should.
A horse in the long handicap is at a disadvantage on paper. Some people dismiss long-handicap runners automatically. That’s probably too simplistic — sometimes the horse is still well drawn or has other things in its favour — but it is an extra headwind that the horse has to overcome.
How punters can use ratings
There are a few practical ways to use the rating system:
Comparing ratings to the market. If a horse rated 95 is running in a race where the top-rated horse is 100, the handicapper thinks 5lb separates them. If the market has the lower-rated horse as a bigger outsider than 5lb would justify, there might be value. The bookmakers and the handicapper don’t always agree, and those disagreements are opportunities.
Tracking ratings trajectories. A horse whose rating has gone 70-75-78-82 over four runs is clearly improving. One whose rating has gone 92-89-86-82 is going the wrong way. But context matters. A horse dropping from 92 to 82 might have had excuses for every run. Or it might genuinely be declining. Knowing which is which is the skill.
Looking for horses ahead of their mark. This is the bread and butter of handicap betting. Horses that are better than their current rating — because they’ve been given time off, because they’ve been deliberately campaigned to lower their mark, or because they’re young and improving. The most profitable angle in handicap betting, historically, is backing improving horses before the handicapper catches up.
Trainers who manipulate the handicap. Let’s be direct about this. Some trainers are better than others at getting a horse’s rating down before targeting a specific race. It’s not cheating; it’s just part of the game. A trainer might run a horse over the wrong trip or on the wrong ground a few times, the rating drops, and then the horse appears in a race that suits perfectly off a lower mark. You can often spot this by looking at the conditions of a horse’s recent runs versus what it actually needs. If a proven soft-ground stayer has been running over a mile on fast ground and is now entered in a two-mile handicap on heavy ground, that’s worth a close look.
The handicapper isn’t always right
The BHA handicapping team is good. They have access to sectional timing data, race replays, and years of experience. But they’re working within a system that’s inherently reactive. They can only adjust ratings based on what’s happened, and horses don’t improve or decline in neat, predictable increments.
The most profitable horses to back in handicaps are the ones the handicapper hasn’t caught up with yet. Either they’ve improved between races (training, maturity, better fitness), or the handicapper overreacted to a poor run that had a specific excuse.
That’s what makes handicap betting interesting. You’re not just trying to pick the best horse; you’re trying to find the horse whose ability is furthest ahead of its official mark. Those two things are not the same.