We’ve got a separate article on going in general terms, but jump racing deserves its own discussion. The ground affects jumps racing differently and more dramatically than it does the flat. Races are longer, the obstacles add another variable, and the going swings more wildly across a jumps season that runs from October to April — slap in the middle of a British winter.
Understanding how ground conditions affect different types of horses is one of the most practical edges you can have. It’s not complicated, but it does require paying attention.
The going scale for jumps
The official going descriptions for jump racing in Britain are the same as the flat:
Hard → Firm → Good to Firm → Good → Good to Soft → Soft → Heavy
You’ll almost never see firm or hard ground at a jumps meeting. It’s dangerous for horses jumping obstacles at speed on an unyielding surface, and most clerks of the course will water the track or abandon rather than race on genuinely firm ground over jumps. The realistic range for jumps is good to firm (occasionally, and usually in early autumn) through to heavy.
Most jump racing happens on good to soft or softer. That’s the default winter ground in Britain. Good ground is a bonus; heavy ground is a regular occurrence from December through February.
GoingStick readings supplement the official descriptions. These electronic measurements give a more precise and objective picture, and they’re worth checking because “good to soft” at one course can ride very differently from “good to soft” at another. A GoingStick reading of 6.5 at Cheltenham and 6.5 at Plumpton are more comparable than “good to soft” at both, because the official descriptions involve subjective judgement.
Why the going matters more over jumps
Three reasons.
Distance. Jump races are longer. The shortest regular jump race is about two miles; many are three miles or more. Over those distances, the cumulative effect of soft or heavy ground is much greater. Running through heavy ground for three miles saps energy in a way that running through it for six furlongs doesn’t. By the time horses turn into the straight in a three-mile chase on heavy ground, many of them are exhausted. Only the genuine stayers with the stamina for it survive.
Obstacles. Jumping fences or hurdles on soft or heavy ground is more demanding than on good ground. The take-off ground is deeper, which means the horse has to exert more energy to launch itself. The landing is softer, which absorbs energy on impact. A horse that jumps fluently on good ground might start making mistakes on heavy because the effort of jumping is greater and concentration lapses when tiredness sets in.
Racing pattern. On good ground, jump races tend to be run at a consistent gallop with a finishing kick. On heavy ground, the pace is slower but more relentless — horses can’t accelerate in the same way, so the race becomes a test of stamina and determination rather than speed and agility. This favours a very different type of horse.
Ground specialist types
Not all horses handle all ground equally, and this is where the betting edge lies.
Soft/heavy ground specialists
Some horses come alive on bottomless ground. They tend to share certain characteristics:
They’re usually strong, powerful types with good stamina. Big-boned, well-muscled horses that can power through deep ground. Think of horses like Denman, who was at his brilliant best when the ground was testing, or more recently Hewick, whose Gold Cup run came on ground that was riding genuinely soft.
They often have a low, economical jumping style rather than being extravagant. Flashy jumpers who put in huge leaps waste energy that they can’t afford on heavy ground.
Their form profile often shows a clear split. Moderate performances on good ground, transformed on soft or heavy. If you see a horse with form figures of 5-3-6-1-1 and the two wins both came on soft or heavy, that’s a ground specialist. The bookmakers don’t always fully account for this, especially early in the season before the ground has turned.
Good ground specialists
The opposite type. These are often lighter-framed, more athletic horses who move best on a sound surface. They tend to be quicker, more nimble, with a higher cruising speed.
Over hurdles, good-ground specialists often come from flat racing backgrounds. A horse that ran in decent flat races before going hurdling has been bred and trained on good ground. When it encounters genuine soft or heavy for the first time, it might struggle.
Over fences, horses that are brilliant, flamboyant jumpers sometimes don’t handle testing ground. Sprinter Sacre was a prime example — at his best on good or good to soft, less effective on soft or heavy. Altior was similar. Their jumping was a weapon on decent ground but the effort of jumping on soft ground dulled their advantage.
Horses that go on anything
Some horses genuinely handle all ground. They tend to be the very best — horses with so much quality that the conditions are secondary. Tiger Roll won on good and on soft. Honeysuckle won on everything from good to heavy. These horses are rare and the market knows about them, so the edge from going analysis is smaller.
Seasonal patterns and when to change your approach
Jump racing’s rhythm follows the weather. Here’s roughly how it plays out:
October-November. The ground is often still decent from the summer. Good to soft is typical, occasionally good. Horses that need soft ground might not be at their best yet. This early-season period favours faster types and horses returning from a summer break in good shape.
December-January. Winter sets in and the ground typically turns soft to heavy. This is prime time for the mud-lovers. The Christmas meetings (Kempton, Leopardstown, Chepstow) can vary — Kempton often rides better than you’d expect because of its drainage, while Chepstow’s Welsh Gold meeting often takes place on bottomless ground.
February-March. Peak winter ground, especially in February. By the Cheltenham Festival in March, the ground depends entirely on the weather in the preceding weeks. Some years it’s soft, some years it’s good. The Festival trials in February (at Cheltenham itself, and at the Dublin Racing Festival) give you important going-related information for the horses’ big targets.
April. Spring arrives and the ground starts drying out. Aintree’s Grand National meeting usually rides good to soft, sometimes quicker. The Scottish Grand National at Ayr can be anything. By late April the ground is often close to good and the season is winding down.
Knowing where you are in this cycle helps calibrate expectations. A horse that loves heavy ground is a stronger proposition in January than in April, even if its form figures don’t look great from October runs on better ground.
Course-specific ground factors
Different courses drain differently, and some produce heavier ground than others even in similar weather conditions.
Cheltenham. Drains well for a course that gets significant rainfall. The New Course (used for Gold Cup day at the Festival) can ride softer than the Old Course. The hill finish is more demanding on soft ground because horses are already tiring when they hit the climb.
Haydock. Notorious for heavy ground, especially in mid-winter. Haydock’s drainage has improved over the years but it still produces genuinely testing conditions more often than most courses. The Betfair Chase in November regularly takes place on soft or heavy ground and is a proper test.
Kempton. Flat, well-drained, and usually rides better than the official going suggests. Even when described as soft, Kempton often rides like good to soft. The King George on Boxing Day is rarely run on genuinely heavy ground.
Chepstow. The Welsh National in late December is run on heavy ground more often than not. The course has a reputation for riding very deep in the winter. Horses that win at Chepstow in December are proven mud-lovers.
Sandown. The railway fences and the stiff uphill finish make Sandown demanding even on good ground. On soft or heavy, it’s a gruelling test. The form from Sandown tends to work out well because only genuine horses handle the track on testing ground.
Practical applications for betting
Check the forecast, not just the going report. The going report tells you what the ground is now. The forecast tells you what it’ll be at race time. If it’s currently good to soft and there’s 20mm of rain forecast overnight, tomorrow’s racing is going to be on soft or heavy. Clerks of the course update the going on the morning of racing, but by then the market may have already moved.
Look at a horse’s form on the relevant going. This sounds obvious but it’s remarkable how often it’s overlooked. The Racing Post and Timeform both allow you to filter a horse’s form by going. A horse with ten career runs might have three on heavy — check what it did on those specifically.
Be suspicious of horses stepping up in trip on heavy ground. A horse that stays two and a half miles on good ground might not stay the same distance on heavy, because the energy cost is so much higher. If a trainer steps a horse up to three miles on testing ground for the first time, it’s a gamble. Sometimes it works, but the failure rate is higher than on decent ground.
Note when trainers add or remove cheekpieces/blinkers on soft ground. Some trainers fit headgear on heavy ground to keep their horses concentrating through the fatigue. If a horse has cheekpieces added for a soft-ground run and the trainer has a good record with that tactic, it’s a signal.
Watch the early races at a meeting. If the first race is run considerably slower than the standard time and every horse finishes exhausted, the ground is riding worse than the official description suggests. Adjust your expectations for the later races accordingly. Conversely, if the times are quick and horses are finishing on the bridle, the ground is better than described. This is free information that arrives before the race you actually want to bet on.
The ground is one of the most powerful predictive factors in jump racing. Identifying horses at the right price on their preferred going is one of the simplest and most reliable ways to find value. It’s not glamorous analysis, but it works.