Lulamba kept his unbeaten record over fences intact with a six-and-a-half length win in the William Hill Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday, but it was the way he won that caught the eye — and the way he matches a pattern that has produced two of the greatest two-mile chasers of the modern era.
Nico de Boinville’s mount was giving weight to seasoned handicappers, jumped sketchily at times on the heavy ground, and was even off the bridle turning in. Yet when the serious business started between the third and second last, he found lengths his rivals simply couldn’t match. The market has reacted accordingly: Lulamba is now 11/8 favourite for the Arkle Challenge Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival.
The Henderson stable have been here before.
The Altior Parallel
In 2017, Altior arrived at Newbury for the Game Spirit having won the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December. He beat experienced handicappers on soft ground, travelled powerfully, and quickened clear of the field when it mattered. Six weeks later, he won the Arkle by eight lengths.
Lulamba’s trajectory is identical. He won the Henry VIII at Sandown in December, stepped into open company at Newbury as a novice, and saw off older horses with a turn of foot that suggested there is more to come on better ground. Both horses were rated in the mid-150s at this stage. Both were trained by Nicky Henderson. Both stepped up from two miles to the Arkle’s two miles and half a furlong at Cheltenham.
The data backs up the visual impression. Since 2010, horses who have won both the Henry VIII and Game Spirit before the Arkle have a perfect Festival record: Altior (2017) won the Arkle. Before that, Sprinter Sacre (2012) won a different Cheltenham prep but followed the same path to Arkle glory.
Henderson’s Arkle Dominance
Nicky Henderson’s record in the Arkle Challenge Trophy is formidable. According to SmartForm data, Henderson has won the race five times from sixteen runners since 2000 — a 31.2% strike rate that dwarfs any other trainer with significant volume in the race.
His winners read like a roll call of champion two-mile chasers: Sprinter Sacre (2012), Altior (2017), and more recently Shishkin (2021). The common thread? All were unbeaten novice chasers who arrived at Cheltenham with their confidence sky-high and their jumping proven at Grade level.
Lulamba fits the mould. Despite the heavy ground at Newbury — “not his ground” according to Henderson — he picked up when asked and jumped the last two fences with the assurance of a horse who understands the job. The trainer noted that he “ought to have learnt plenty” from racing against older horses who travel and jump at a faster tempo than novices typically encounter.
The Historical Pattern
The Game Spirit has become a key Arkle trial in recent years, but not always in obvious ways. Edwardstone won the 2022 Arkle having not run in the Game Spirit that season — he was kept fresh for March. Funambule Sivola won back-to-back Game Spirits in 2022 and 2023 but never contested the Arkle.
However, when a novice wins the Game Spirit specifically — rather than an established handicapper — the Arkle has tended to follow. Altior was the last to do the double in 2017. Before him, the pattern was less consistent, but the modern trend toward fewer prep runs and more specific Cheltenham targeting means the Game Spirit has grown in importance as a form guide.
Lulamba’s performance was particularly notable given the conditions. The heavy ground at Newbury was genuinely testing — “more testing than ideal” in Henderson’s own words — yet the horse still quickened clear of Saint Segal and Libberty Hunter, both proven campaigners. The time was solid, and the style of victory — rating with the leaders before unleashing a decisive turn of foot — is exactly what wins Arkles.
What the Data Says About March
The Arkle Challenge Trophy demands a specific combination of attributes: electric pace over two miles, precise jumping at speed, and the ability to handle Cheltenham’s uphill finish. Lulamba has shown all three in his four starts over fences.
His official rating of 157 puts him firmly in the Arkle conversation. Altior was rated 160 going into the 2017 Arkle. Sprinter Sacre was rated 166 before his Festival triumph. The gap is marginal, and Henderson’s suggestion that Lulamba “will jump better on good ground” implies there is improvement to come.
The wider context matters too. Willie Mullins has dominated recent renewals with El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, and Jango Baie among his recent winners. The Irish trainer’s grip on the race has tightened, but Henderson’s track record suggests he knows exactly what it takes to wrestle it back.
The Verdict
Lulamba’s Game Spirit win was not a flash in the pan. It was the continuation of a pattern that has produced champion chasers, trained by a handler with a 31% strike rate in the very race he’s targeting. The heavy ground exaggerated his stamina; better conditions at Cheltenham should suit his jumping and speed.
At 11/8 for the Arkle, the market has recognised what the data shows: when Nicky Henderson sends an unbeaten novice from the Henry VIII to the Game Spirit and on to Cheltenham, history suggests you should pay attention.
Key Stats:
- Lulamba: 4/4 over fences, OR 157, Henry VIII and Game Spirit winner
- Nicky Henderson: 5 Arkle wins from 16 runners (31.2% strike rate) since 2000
- Altior (2017): Same path (Henry VIII → Game Spirit → Arkle), won all three
- Game Spirit-Arkle double: Successfully completed by Altior (2017), previous pattern inconsistent but strengthening in modern era