The 19-length beating Majborough handed Marine Nationale at Leopardstown three weeks ago should have settled the Champion Chase argument. It hasn’t.
Barry Connell isn’t backing down. Neither is the formbook, which paints a very different picture when you filter for Prestbury Park.
The Cheltenham Factor
Marine Nationale is 2-for-2 at the Festival. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2023. Champion Chase defence last March. Two Grade 1s, two wins, two different types of ground — soft for the Supreme, good to soft for the Champion Chase.
Majborough’s Cheltenham record? Won the Triumph Hurdle on heavy ground in 2024, then finished third in the Arkle last year on the same good to soft surface Marine Nationale handled so well. The 19-length winner from Dublin was three lengths behind Kalif Du Berlais when it mattered most at Cheltenham.
That Leopardstown demolition looks devastating on paper, but context strips it back. The ground was brutal — Connell called it the worst he’d seen there in 25 years — and Marine Nationale has never acted on deep ground. He won a Punchestown Grade 3 on summer soft, but this was different. He couldn’t find traction, couldn’t get into a rhythm, and still plugged on for second when Solness folded.
Trainer Form at the Festival
The trainer stats add another layer. Since 2020, Barry Connell has run five horses at Cheltenham. Two have won. That’s a 40% strike rate.
Willie Mullins has won 53 Festival races in the same period. He’s also had 434 runners. That’s a 12.2% strike rate — perfectly respectable at a meeting where even the best trainers see their percentages collapse under the weight of competition.
Connell doesn’t run duds at Cheltenham. Majborough’s trainer runs everything.
The Ratings Gap
Official ratings have Majborough on 174, Marine Nationale on 169. Five pounds to find on ratings Connell himself acknowledges. But ratings don’t factor in course form, and they definitely don’t factor in what happened at Leopardstown that day.
Timeform has pushed Majborough to 179, the highest-rated jumps horse in training. Twelve pounds clear of Marine Nationale on their figures. But again — that assessment is built on one performance in extreme conditions that are unlikely to be replicated in March.
Spring ground at Cheltenham changes everything. Marine Nationale has proven he handles it. Majborough’s only Festival defeat came on it.
The O’Sullivan Connection
There’s more to this than numbers. Michael O’Sullivan won his first bumper on Marine Nationale. His first Grade 1 on him too. The Supreme win was the launchpad for a career that ended cruelly at Thurles.
Connell kept the box O’Sullivan used. The routine hasn’t changed. The horse who helped make a champion conditional is now carrying that legacy forward. Last year’s Champion Chase win came weeks after O’Sullivan’s death — one of the most emotionally charged victories in recent Festival history.
This year the race has been renamed the Michael O’Sullivan Queen Mother Champion Chase. If Marine Nationale wins it, the symmetry will be almost too perfect.
The Verdict
Majborough was electric at Leopardstown. On heavy ground, over two miles and a furlong, with Mark Walsh in the plate, he produced a Jump Index of 9.5 on RaceiQ — Connell’s own metric puts 8 as “good.” He met every fence perfectly and galloped his rivals into submission.
But Cheltenham in March is different. The track, the ground, the atmosphere. Marine Nationale knows it. He’s never left without a win.
Connell put it simply: “He’s eight, in the prime of his life.”
The 19 lengths from Dublin won’t matter when they jump off at Prestbury Park. What will matter is which horse handles the unique demands of the place. On that score, the formbook is clear — and it’s not the one-sided contest the Dublin Chase suggested.
Champion Chase day, Wednesday 11 March. The rematch.