Less than four weeks from the first race at Prestbury Park, the battle lines are being drawn. The Guardian’s Greg Wood fired the latest salvo this morning, warning British yards that Ireland’s battalions are “ready to roll” — and the numbers back him up completely.
Fewer Runners, More Winners
Over the last three Cheltenham Festivals (2023–2025), Irish-trained runners have been outnumbered roughly two-to-one. They’ve turned up with 414 runners across those three meetings compared to 920 from British yards. Yet their win tallies have been remarkably close: 33 Irish winners to 50 British.
Crunch the strike rates and the gap is stark. Irish runners have won at 8.0% across the three festivals. The home team? Just 5.4%. That means an Irish runner at Cheltenham has been roughly 50% more likely to win than a British one.
The Mullins Machine Keeps Rolling
Willie Mullins remains the dominant force. His 25 Festival winners from 229 runners since 2023 gives him a 10.9% strike rate — more than double Nicky Henderson’s 4.9% from 61 runners over the same period. Mullins’ current form is frightening: a 20.8% win rate from his last 264 runners, with 55 winners in the past two months alone.
He landed 10 winners at last year’s Festival from 76 runners and has shown no sign of slowing down. When Mullins sends a horse to Cheltenham, it’s rarely there to make up the numbers.
Elliott’s Quiet Resurgence
Gordon Elliott’s Festival record has been patchy — just one winner from 54 runners in 2025, and three the year before. But dismissing him would be a mistake. His yard is humming right now with 52 winners from 333 runners in the past 60 days, a 15.6% strike rate that suggests the ammunition is being stockpiled.
Elliott brought seven Festival winners in 2020, the last time the meeting ran at full capacity before COVID disruption. With 166 runners across the last three Festivals for seven wins (4.2%), he’s overdue a big week — and the current form figures say it could come this year.
Dinoblue: The Banker?
One horse who perfectly illustrates the Irish threat is Dinoblue. The Mullins-trained mare won the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at last year’s Festival and has come back in better form than ever. Two wins from two starts this season — a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day and the Opera Hat Listed Chase at Naas last week — have her primed for a repeat bid.
Her Cheltenham record reads 1-0-0-0 from one start. A course specialist with a trainer running at 20% — she’s as close to a Festival banker as you’ll find.
The British Defence
It’s not all doom for the home team. Dan Skelton has been the standout British trainer at the Festival recently, landing seven winners from just 37 runners since 2023 — a remarkable 18.9% strike rate that tops even Mullins. Paul Nicholls (four wins from 46 at 8.7%) continues to target the meeting selectively, and Henderson will always have his moments.
But the depth of quality from Ireland makes them the market leaders. When one in twelve Irish runners wins a race at the Festival compared to roughly one in eighteen British horses, the green tide is a statistical reality, not just media hype.
The 2026 Cheltenham Festival runs from March 10–13. If the last three years are anything to go by, pack an umbrella and back an Irish accent.