Ruby Walsh doesn’t do throwaway lines. So when he says one of Gaelic Warrior or Fact To File will “definitely” end up in the Ryanair Chase rather than the Gold Cup, it’s worth pulling the form book apart to see what the numbers say.
Speaking on the Paddy Power ‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ podcast, Walsh drew a comparison with Florida Pearl — a horse who dominated at Leopardstown but never quite got the Gold Cup trip. His conclusion: the extra two furlongs and a couple of yards at Cheltenham’s 3m2½f might just find one of them out.
The Distance Question
The SmartForm data paints a striking picture. Over fences, Gaelic Warrior has won three of four starts at distances between 2m4f and 2m6f — the exact range of the Ryanair. Step him up beyond three miles and his record drops to just one win from three, with that sole victory coming in the Oaksey Chase at Sandown, hardly a Gold Cup trial.
Fact To File’s profile is similar but subtly different. At the Ryanair distance (2m4f-2m6f), he’s won four from six over fences, including last year’s Ryanair itself and two John Durkan victories. Beyond three miles, he’s two from five — but one of those wins was the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham, which at least proves he handles the track when the stamina is stretched.
The John Durkan: A Ryanair Rehearsal
Walsh called the John Durkan at Punchestown the standout race of the season so far. It’s hard to argue. Run over 2m4f on soft-to-heavy ground, Gaelic Warrior edged Fact To File by just a quarter of a length. Both horses were in their element at that trip — aggressive, front-running, electric.
The problem? The Gold Cup asks them to sustain that for nearly a mile further. At Kempton on Boxing Day, when the King George stretched to three miles on good ground, Gaelic Warrior finished third (beaten just a neck), while Fact To File trailed home sixth. Neither looked like they’d been crying out for further.
Irish Gold Cup: A Split Verdict
Fact To File won the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 2nd, beating Gaelic Warrior by five lengths at a trip of 3m1f on heavy ground. On the face of it, that settles the stamina argument in his favour. But the heavy ground and Leopardstown’s flat track are a long way from Cheltenham’s undulating 3m2½f, and Fact To File would need to be supplemented for the Gold Cup — an extra cost his connections might not fancy if there’s any doubt.
Market Position
Paddy Power’s NRNB Ryanair market has Fact To File at evens and Gaelic Warrior at 7/4. Walsh’s view is simple: back both, because whichever one turns up will likely be “a shade of odds-on.” If he’s right, either price represents significant value right now.
The defending Ryanair champion returning to his distance sweet spot, or the Arkle winner whose best chase form clusters around 2m4f-2m6f? The data says both horses are better at the Ryanair trip than the Gold Cup trip. Walsh knows it. The market might not have fully caught on yet.
Four weeks to go. One of them is coming to the Ryanair. The smart money says that’s where they belong.