Barry Connell trains a handful of horses on 45 acres in Kildare. He doesn’t have 250 in the yard. He doesn’t have a conveyor belt of six-figure store horses arriving each autumn. What he does have is a Cheltenham record that makes no statistical sense for an operation his size.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Connell has sent 56 runners to Cheltenham across all meetings. Three of those have won at the Festival itself: Marine Nationale in the 2023 Supreme (9/2), Seddon in the Plate that same week (20/1), and Marine Nationale again in last year’s Champion Chase (5/1). That’s a 5.4% win rate at the track overall, which sounds modest until you consider the calibre of races he’s targeting.
More telling is what happens when he pitches up at Graded level. We pulled his record in Class 1 races since January 2023: 174 runners, 10 winners, 43 placed. A 5.7% win rate and 24.7% place rate in the toughest races in the calendar. For context, those 10 winners include Grade 1 victories for Marine Nationale at Cheltenham, Punchestown (twice), and Good Land at Leopardstown.
The Festival Placed Record
The wins get the headlines, but the placed runners tell you something about consistency. At Cheltenham Festival specifically, Connell has filled the frame repeatedly at enormous prices:
- William Munny — 2nd in the 2025 Supreme at 8/1
- Heads Up — 2nd in the 2025 Champion Bumper at 33/1
- Bardenstown Lad — 3rd in the 2022 Albert Bartlett at 20/1
- Good Land — 4th in the 2023 Ballymore at 9/2
That’s not fluke territory. That’s a trainer who knows how to get horses to peak at Prestbury Park.
Marine Nationale: Writing Him Off Is Risky
The temptation after Leopardstown in early February is to dismiss Marine Nationale’s Champion Chase defence. He finished 19 lengths behind Majborough in the Dublin Chase on heavy ground, beaten at 5/4 favourite. The market has drifted accordingly.
But Connell, speaking to the Daily Mail this week, was pointed about it. He referenced the Race IQ jumping data: Marine Nationale lost 15 lengths to Majborough on the jumping index alone, and was beaten by 13 lengths total. In other words, on a better jumping day, there’s nothing between them.
Look at Marine Nationale’s career pattern and it backs this up. He’s now run at Leopardstown’s Christmas/February meetings five times and won just once (a beginners chase in December 2023). His two best career performances — the Supreme and the Champion Chase — both came at Cheltenham on better ground. He’s a course horse who saves his best for the place that matters.
His record at Cheltenham reads: two runs, two wins, both in Grade 1 company. That’s not nothing, even against a horse as good as Majborough.
The 50/1 Shot Worth Knowing About
Connell also mentioned Eachoftheirown as his Supreme Novices’ Hurdle contender. We couldn’t find him in the SmartForm database yet, which suggests limited UK/Irish form, but Connell’s quotes were characteristically bullish — he called him a “certainty” for the Royal Bond before the horse had an off day, then won easily at Thurles last time.
At 50/1 with some firms, that’s a horse trained by a man with three Festival winners in three years, including the 2023 Supreme itself. The each-way value at least deserves a second look.
The Bigger Picture
What Connell is doing from a small yard is remarkable by any measure. In an era where Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott hoover up the majority of Graded winners in Ireland, Connell keeps finding ways to compete. He’s had 43 places from 174 runners in the top tier since 2023. His horses consistently outrun their odds at Cheltenham specifically.
The Festival is less than four weeks away. If you’re looking for a trainer to follow at bigger prices, the data says Connell’s operation punches well above its weight.