Jonbon is the story everyone wants to tell on Saturday. With 11 Grade One victories already in the bank after his remarkable Clarence House revival last month, Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old is chasing history at Ascot.
But history has a habit of repeating itself in jump racing — and at Ascot, the history belongs to Pic D’Orhy.
The Ascot Specialist
Paul Nicholls’ ten-year-old has turned the Ascot Chase into his personal fiefdom. He’s won it twice — in 2024 at 13/8 and again in 2025 at 9/5 — and the manner of those victories tells you everything.
In 2024, he “jumped boldly, made all and soon clear, went further clear” before the commentator ran out of superlatives. Unchallenged. In 2025, it was the same script: “made all, jumped well, went clear from the 11th, always in command, coasted home.” Again, unchallenged.
That’s not just winning. That’s domination. Two Ascot Chase victories by a combined margin that made the rest look like they were running a different race.
Zoom out further and Pic D’Orhy’s Ascot record across all distances is striking: four wins from seven completed starts at the track. He’s won at the course over two and a half miles and over three. The undulating, right-handed configuration simply suits his front-running style — get out, jump fast, and dare them to come and get you.
Jonbon’s Vulnerability
Nobody is questioning Jonbon’s talent. Eleven Grade One wins put him in elite company, and his 6/1 Clarence House win last month — when many thought he was finished after back-to-back defeats at Cheltenham and Sandown — was arguably the performance of the season.
But look closer at Jonbon’s record and a pattern emerges. He’s brilliant at two miles, devastating over two and a half at Aintree’s flat track, but his two runs at Cheltenham’s Champion Chase have yielded a pulled-up and a second, beaten 18 lengths by El Fabiolo. He’s a horse who needs things his own way.
Saturday’s Ascot Chase is run over two miles and five furlongs — Pic D’Orhy’s distance, on Pic D’Orhy’s track. Jonbon has won both his Ascot starts, but those were Clarence House runs at the minimum trip. Stepping up in distance against a proven course specialist adds a layer of complexity Henderson’s team won’t take lightly.
The Arctic Twist
There’s a subplot to all of this. An arctic blast sweeping across Britain has already claimed Monday’s Lingfield fixture and forced inspections at both Wincanton and Haydock for Saturday. Ascot, thankfully, has avoided an inspection so far — but temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing overnight.
Pic D’Orhy’s record shows a clear preference for better ground. His two Ascot Chase wins came on good-to-soft and good ground respectively. His one poor Ascot run this season — a third in the 1965 Chase in November — came on good-to-soft ground but after a summer off and over an inadequate trip. If the frost firms things up, it might actually play into his hands.
The Cheltenham Angle
With the Festival just 25 days away, both horses have March targets. Jonbon is likely headed for the Champion Chase, while Pic D’Orhy’s stamina makes the Ryanair a more natural fit.
But Saturday isn’t about Cheltenham. It’s about one horse who owns this race, this track, this distance — and whether the most decorated chaser in training can take it from him.
The market will say Jonbon. The data says don’t ignore the horse who’s made the Ascot Chase his own.