Paul Nicholls doesn’t do things quietly. After Tutti Quanti demolished a strong field in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last Saturday, the 14-time champion trainer dropped a bombshell: the Champion Hurdle is under serious consideration.
“We’re going to really consider the Champion Hurdle if it keeps on raining and the ground is on the slow side,” Nicholls wrote in his Betfair blog this week. “The way he won last Saturday suggests he’s rapidly improving and when they’re improving you never know where their ceiling might be.”
It sounds like classic trainer optimism. But the numbers tell a more compelling story than you might expect.
The Rise
Tutti Quanti’s trajectory has been steep. He started this season rated 130 after a quiet effort at Chepstow in October, where he finished sixth of nine in the Welsh Champion Hurdle on good-to-firm ground. That surface clearly didn’t suit.
Switch to soft or heavy ground, and he’s a different animal. At Newbury in November, he made all to win a Premier Handicap off 130. Back at the same track on February 7th, he did it again — this time off 138 in the £155,000 William Hill Hurdle, making every yard and winning “easily” according to the race comments.
The handicapper responded with a 13lb hike, pushing him to 151. That’s significant. It puts him within range of established Grade 1 performers.
The Newbury Factor
What stands out is Tutti Quanti’s affinity with Newbury. Four of his eight career starts have been at the Berkshire track, producing two wins and a second. His two-mile trip at Newbury on soft or heavy ground reads: 1-1-2. That’s a horse who knows the place inside out.
More importantly, his running style — front-running, aggressive, making the pace — translates well to the demands of a Championship race on testing ground. Horses who lead in the Champion Hurdle on soft ground have a strong record. The pace tends to collapse behind them, and stamina becomes the deciding factor.
Nicholls and the Champion Hurdle: Unfinished Business
Here’s where it gets interesting. Despite training over 4,000 winners and dominating National Hunt racing for two decades, Nicholls has a curious blind spot in the Champion Hurdle.
Our SmartForm database shows 11 Nicholls runners in the race since 2003. Only one has won: Rock On Ruby in 2012, at 11/1. Celestial Halo came closest otherwise, finishing second in 2009 and fourth in 2010.
Since Rock On Ruby, Nicholls has sent out just three runners in the race — Zarkandar (4th in 2013), Ptit Zig (6th in 2014), and Old Guard in 2016. He hasn’t had a runner in a decade.
That absence isn’t accidental. Nicholls has focused his attention on the staying divisions — the Gold Cup, the Stayers’ Hurdle, the big handicap chases. A genuine Champion Hurdle contender hasn’t emerged from Ditcheat in years.
Tutti Quanti could change that.
The Caveats
Let’s be realistic about the challenges. A rating of 151 is competitive for a handicapper but modest by Champion Hurdle standards. Recent winners have typically been rated in the 160-170 range.
Tutti Quanti was also well beaten on his only Cheltenham start — finishing sixth of eleven in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 125/1. Cheltenham’s undulations and unique demands are a different test to Newbury’s galloping track.
And there’s the supplementary fee to consider. Nicholls has wisely given himself time: “We don’t have to supplement him until five or six days before the race, so if the ground’s right and he’s right then we’ll be having a go.”
The Verdict
The Champion Hurdle may be a step too far this year. But dismiss Tutti Quanti at your peril. A horse who has improved 21lb in his last three runs — from a rating of 130 to an effective mark of 151 — is on a trajectory that demands attention. If the heavens open in the Cotswolds and the ground comes up heavy, he could run a much bigger race than his price suggests.
At the very least, Nicholls is back in the Champion Hurdle conversation for the first time in a decade. That alone makes Tutti Quanti one of the most fascinating stories of the Cheltenham build-up.