Alexei Joins an Exclusive Kingwell Club — But Is He Good Enough for the Champion Hurdle?

Three Kingwell Hurdle winners have gone on to take the Champion Hurdle this century. Golden Ace did it just last year. Katchit managed it in 2008. Hors La Loi III in 2002. So when Alexei ground out a length-and-a-quarter victory over Rubaud in Saturday’s Grade 2 at Wincanton, it was natural to wonder whether he could be the fourth.

The honest answer? Probably not. But there’s enough in his profile to make things interesting.

A Horse on a Steep Trajectory

Alexei was running in maiden hurdles at Taunton 15 months ago. He won that by 25 lengths, which caught the eye, but it was a four-runner race on good-to-firm ground against nothing horses. The kind of thing that happens every week.

What’s happened since is more noteworthy. After a quiet novice season — including a disappointing eighth at Newbury last March — Joe Tizzard brought him back this autumn and something clicked. He won a handicap at Ascot off a mark of 130, then bolted up by six lengths in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, beating 17 rivals off 139. That Cheltenham win is the standout piece of form. The Greatwood is a hot handicap, run at the Festival course over two miles, and he did it with authority.

Saturday’s Kingwell was a different kind of test. Only four runners, heavy ground, and he was a 1/2 shot. He had to work for it too — Rubaud pressed him all the way up the straight and Brendan Powell had to get serious on the run-in. It wasn’t flashy, but he got it done.

What the Kingwell Record Actually Tells Us

We went through the last 14 Kingwell winners in our database. The results are a mixed bag.

So out of those who actually contested the Champion Hurdle, you’ve got one winner (Golden Ace), one placed (Yanworth’s third), and the rest nowhere near. The Kingwell is a useful stepping stone but winning it doesn’t guarantee you’re Champion Hurdle class — far from it.

The ones that went well at Cheltenham tended to be progressive horses with strong Cheltenham form already in the bank. Golden Ace had won the International Hurdle at the December meeting. Yanworth was a top-class novice the previous season. Alexei fits part of that profile — he has that Greatwood win at the track — but there’s a gap between beating handicappers and mixing it with the elite.

The Numbers For and Against

For: Joe Tizzard is having a strong season — 36 winners from 227 runners at a 16% strike rate. Alexei has won on soft at Cheltenham already. He travels well through his races, which matters in the Champion Hurdle where you need to be close to the pace.

Against: The Greatwood was won off a mark of 139. Champion Hurdle winners typically rate in the 165-175 range. That’s a big jump, even accounting for handicap compression. His winning distances have been modest at Graded level — 1.25 lengths in the Kingwell on heavy ground against one serious rival isn’t the form of a champion.

Worth a Bet?

Paddy Power pushed Alexei into 20/1 from 25s after Saturday. At that price, you’re basically betting that his improvement curve is steeper than the form suggests, and that the established order — Constitution Hill if he runs, State Man, Doyen De Sivola — will underperform.

It’s not impossible. Last year’s Champion Hurdle was won by Golden Ace at 12/1, and she’d been a 20/1 shot a month before the race. Improvement happens. But we’d want to see more before getting involved. If he were to run again — perhaps at Kempton or in a trial somewhere — and put up a big performance against better opposition, the picture would change.

For now, Alexei is a horse to watch rather than back. But at this stage of the season, with Cheltenham three weeks away, that’s worth something.