Here’s a stat that should settle the Jonbon debate once and for all.
At two miles and below over fences, Jonbon’s record reads 14 wins from 21 completed starts — a 67% strike rate. Excellent, but not flawless. At two miles and four furlongs or beyond? Three runs, three wins. Perfect.
Now consider this: at Cheltenham, across all distances, he’s 0 from 5.
Put those two numbers together and the conclusion is obvious. The Ryanair Chase, run over two miles and four furlongs at the Festival on Thursday March 12, isn’t just a viable alternative to the Champion Chase. It might be his best chance of finally winning at Prestbury Park.
Cheltenham’s Uncomfortable Truth
Jonbon’s Cheltenham record is the one stain on an otherwise extraordinary career. Second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2022), second in the Arkle (2023), a non-runner in the Champion Chase (2024), second again in the Champion Chase (2025), and second in the Shloer (November 2025). Five trips to Prestbury Park as a chaser, zero victories.
The defeat margins tell their own story. In last season’s Champion Chase, El Fabiolo hammered him by 18 lengths. In November’s Shloer, he was beaten 15 lengths by a resurgent Energumene. These aren’t narrow defeats where luck was against him — these are comprehensive beatings by high-class two-milers who had the speed to burn him off.
Why the Trip Changes Everything
Saturday’s Ascot Chase victory was the latest piece of evidence in a compelling pattern. At intermediate distances, Jonbon becomes a different horse.
Both Melling Chase wins at Aintree — run over two miles and four furlongs — were dominant performances. The in-race comment from April 2025 reads: “led 8th, clear after 2 out, ridden flat, slightly reduced lead towards finish but in no danger.” That’s a horse in his comfort zone.
Even at two miles, his recent wins have been about stamina rather than speed. In January’s Clarence House, he was headed early, dropped to third at three out, then ground his way back to lead close home. On Saturday at Ascot, it was the same story — Pic D’Orhy led most of the way, but Jonbon’s relentless stamina wore him down in the closing stages.
As Nicky Henderson himself put it: “It wasn’t a blistering turn of foot like an old two-miler might have. It was actually stamina that got him there.”
What SmartForm Tells Us
Digging deeper into the database, there’s a revealing split in how Jonbon wins at different trips.
At two miles, his races follow a familiar pattern — prominent, ridden along from three out, staying on. He makes it work through sheer determination, but he’s often under pressure turning in. Seven of his 21 completed runs at two miles have resulted in second-place finishes.
At longer trips, the dynamic shifts. He travels more comfortably, doesn’t get as lit up in the early stages, and has more in reserve for the finish. His three wins at 2m4f+ have come with an aggregate winning distance of over 10 lengths.
Henderson touched on this after Saturday: “Over two miles you have to put the gun to his head. Today, I suspect he has enjoyed it a bit more as Nico hasn’t had to ask, ask, ask.”
The Ryanair Field
The Ryanair has historically attracted staying two-milers stepping up and three-mile chasers dropping back. This year, Jonbon would likely face the likes of Banbridge, Gaelic Warrior, and potentially Il Est Francais — quality opposition, but none of them battle-hardened two-and-a-half-mile specialists in the way Jonbon now is.
There’s also the tactical angle. The Ryanair typically draws fields of 8-12 runners, larger than the small fields Jonbon has thrived in. But at a trip that plays to his stamina rather than his speed, that might matter less.
The Verdict
The heart says Champion Chase. Twelve Grade One wins, never worse than second, and he “deserves” a Cheltenham Festival victory, as Henderson keeps saying.
The data says Ryanair. A perfect record at the trip, a pattern of increasingly stamina-dependent victories, and a Cheltenham record that screams he doesn’t have the two-mile speed to beat the very best at the minimum trip.
At 10 years old, Jonbon might only get one more crack at the Festival. The numbers suggest making it count at two and a half miles.