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Panic Attack's Grand National Dream: The Numbers For and Against

No horse had ever won both the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Coral Gold Cup in the same season. Then Panic Attack did it inside a fortnight.

We went through every winner of both races in the SmartForm database. Not one horse had doubled up in a single campaign — until this ten-year-old mare rattled off victories at Cheltenham on November 15th and Newbury on November 29th, improving from a rating of 135 to what is now 147 after her stroll in a Listed mares’ chase at Newbury in January.

Owner Bryan Drew spoke on the Nick Luck Daily Podcast this week about what comes next: the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham first, then a crack at the Grand National in April. “If you’d told me this time last year she’d have gone three wins on the bounce including the Paddy Power and the Coral, I’d have said you’d had a knock on the head,” Drew said.

The Pipe-to-Skelton Transformation

The form book tells a story of two careers. Under David Pipe, Panic Attack was a steady performer — a Listed hurdle winner at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, but largely stuck in the 120-130 rating band across 12 starts. She then disappeared for over 18 months.

When she resurfaced with Dan Skelton in December 2024, her rating was back down to 120. Six runs later, she’s rated 147 — a 27lb improvement that belongs in a different postcode from her earlier form.

What changed? Skelton’s regime clearly suits her. Drew mentioned she’d been through “a run of little niggles” and that “she likes the regime at Dan’s.” The results back that up: four wins from six under Skelton, with only a narrow second and a third in her first run back on the scorecard.

What the Grand National Data Says About Mares

Here’s where it gets uncomfortable. Since 2010, twelve mares have lined up in the Grand National. Not one has won. Only one has placed — Magic Of Light, who finished second in 2019.

That’s 12 runners, zero winners, one placed horse. The numbers are grim.

It’s a small sample, and you could argue the quality of mare entering the race has been poor. Panic Attack is different — she’s a dual premier handicap winner on a rating 12lb higher than any other mare who has lined up since 2010. She’s not making up the numbers.

But there’s a practical hurdle too. Drew admitted she’s currently 46th of 47 in the weights on 10st 5lb. “Last year that weight was numbers 32 and 33 so I think it’s going to be quite tight for Aintree,” he said. Enough non-runners would need to come out of the picture for her to squeeze in.

Cheltenham First, Aintree Second

The smart money — figuratively — is on Cheltenham being the real target. With four weeks between the Mares’ Chase and the National, doing both is possible but ambitious.

Skelton’s Cheltenham Festival record gives genuine reason for optimism. Seven winners since 2023, including a Grade 1 with The New Lion last March. He knows how to peak a horse for the meeting, and Panic Attack’s January Listed win looked like a controlled prep run — sent off at 1/4, never asked a serious question.

If she wins the Mares’ Chase, she’ll probably go to Aintree off the back of it. If she doesn’t get in the Grand National, they’ll have the Festival prize in the bag. Drew called it “right to prioritise the mares’ chase” and it’s hard to argue.

The Bottom Line

Panic Attack has already done something no horse has done before. A Cheltenham Festival win is very much on the table. The Grand National? The history says no mare has managed it in modern times, and getting a run isn’t guaranteed.

But then, nobody thought she’d win the Paddy Power Gold Cup at 6/1, let alone follow it up at Newbury a fortnight later at 16/1. This mare has a habit of rewriting the script.

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