Willie Mullins has won the Triumph Hurdle five times in the last six years. Read that again. Five from six. Vauban, Lossiemouth, Majborough, Burning Victory, and last year’s 100/1 shock Poniros. The only year he missed out was 2021, when Henry de Bromhead’s Quilixios took it.
That record would be remarkable in any race. In a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival, where British trainers send their best juveniles every March, it’s borderline absurd.
The Numbers Behind the Dominance
We pulled every Mullins runner in the Triumph from our database going back to 2004. He’s sent 57 horses to the race across 18 renewals. Five winners, but the volume tells its own story — in recent years he’s flooded the race. Last year he had 11 runners. In 2024, seven. In 2023, eight.
His overall Festival win rate since 2020 sits at 13.3% from 331 runners. But in the Triumph specifically, he’s winning at over 80% in the years he has a runner. He’s turned a race that used to produce shocks into something closer to a Mullins benefit.
This year? Fourteen entries. Because of course there are.
Selma De Vary, Proactif, and Now Majolique
The market has Selma De Vary and Proactif at the head of affairs. Selma De Vary shaped well when second to the now-ruled-out Narciso Has on stable debut, while Proactif won nicely at Fairyhouse in January and carries the JP McManus colours.
Then yesterday happened. Majolique, a filly having her first run for Mullins at Naas, won a Listed juvenile hurdle by four lengths under Paul Townend — and was cut to 20/1 for the Triumph. Assistant trainer David Casey’s post-race comments were telling: “We weren’t expecting it. I thought she’d need the run badly.” A horse that wins when supposedly needing the run is usually one to take seriously.
The race itself was odd. Nothing wanted to lead. The runners walked for over a minute before breaking into a trot, which effectively turned a mile-seven contest into a mile-five sprint. The 11/10 favourite Immediate Effect, who’d been forced to make the running, finished last. It was messy — but Majolique still won going away.
The Outsider: Minella Study
The best Triumph Trial winner at Cheltenham this season wasn’t trained by Mullins. It was Minella Study, from Adam Nicol’s small yard in Scotland, ridden by Ryan Mania and winning by six and a half lengths in December.
Nicol’s Cheltenham record before that? One runner at the Festival — Le Curieux in the 2016 Fred Winter, finishing 16th. His operation is modest: 42 winners from 424 runners across the database. Minella Study’s path to the Triumph has been unconventional too — a few modest Flat runs in Ireland, a maiden hurdle win at Tipperary, then a Listed win at Wetherby where he survived a bad mistake two out.
It’s a genuine David and Goliath story. Nicol’s single horse against Mullins’ army.
What Actually Matters
The uncomfortable truth for anyone backing against Mullins is that even his less fancied runners have a habit of turning up. Poniros was a converted Flat horse who’d finished 22nd in the Cambridgeshire before winning the Triumph at 100/1. Nobody saw it coming — except apparently whoever saddled him.
Mullins’ 14 entries will thin out before March, probably to five or six runners. But even if Minella Study is the best individual horse in the race, there’s a statistical reality: when Mullins has this many chances, one of them tends to find the frame at least.
The Triumph Hurdle has become his race. Whether that changes this year might depend on whether Minella Study is good enough to beat not just one Mullins horse, but all of them.