Protektorat’s win in the Premier Chase at Kelso yesterday was the kind of result that barely registers as a surprise anymore. A year ago, Dan Skelton saddled Protektorat to win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Now the horse is picking up Listed prizes as a warm-up. Business as usual.
But zoom out and there’s a bigger story here. Skelton’s 2025-26 season is comfortably the best of his career, and there are still four months of it left — including a certain four days in mid-March.
The numbers are hard to argue with
We pulled Skelton’s season-by-season record from the SmartForm database. This is what his last three seasons look like:
| Season | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Placed (top 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 965 | 148 | 15.3% | 40.9% |
| 2024-25 | 1,045 | 163 | 15.6% | 40.6% |
| 2025-26 | 793 | 133 | 16.8% | 42.4% |
That 16.8% strike rate is the headline. He’s sending out fewer runners than last season but converting at a higher rate, which suggests better targeting rather than just more volume. And the prize money backs it up — his winners have already accumulated over £3.78 million in added money this term, compared to £3.24 million for the whole of 2024-25.
He’s already past last season’s total. With the Festival, Aintree, and the spring still to come.
Where he sits in the trainers’ table
Among NH trainers this season, only Gordon Elliott (136 winners) has more than Skelton’s 121. Willie Mullins is third on 119. For a British-based trainer to be sandwiched between those two Irish juggernauts is pretty remarkable.
His strength in depth is evident from the Class 1 and 2 wins we found. Twenty big-race victories this season, spread across different horses and different types: Protektorat in open chases, Maestro Conti in juvenile hurdles, The New Lion in the Unibet Hurdle, Carlenrig in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. It’s not a one-horse operation.
The Festival trajectory is the real story
For years, Skelton’s Festival record was a source of frustration. Between 2020 and 2022, he sent 42 runners to the meeting and had zero winners. Not one.
Then something shifted. We pulled his full Cheltenham Festival record:
| Year | Runners | Winners | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | 12 | 0 | 3 |
| 2022 | 13 | 0 | 2 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| 2024 | 10 | 4 | 5 |
| 2025 | 11 | 1 | 4 |
From blank years to four winners in 2024, including that Ryanair with Protektorat and Grey Dawning’s Turners Novices’ Chase. He’s gone from sending large numbers and hoping, to sending fewer, better-targeted runners and hitting.
The 2025 return of just one winner (The New Lion in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle) might look like a step back, but four of his eleven runners placed. He was competitive across the board.
What to watch at this year’s Festival
Skelton heads to Cheltenham 2026 with his strongest hand yet. Protektorat is proven at the highest level there. Maestro Conti looks a live Triumph Hurdle contender after winning at both Kempton and Cheltenham already. The New Lion is a Grade 2 winner over hurdles this season. Carlenrig and Dalston Lad give him novice options.
The days of Skelton being a high-volume trainer who couldn’t crack the Festival feel properly over. His strike rate is up, his prize money is at a career high, and he’s proven he can win Grade 1s at Prestbury Park.
Whether that translates to another four-winner Festival remains to be seen — the sample size from 2024 is small and it could easily have been two instead. But the trajectory over the last three years, combined with the quality of horses he’s bringing this time, makes him the British trainer to watch. The numbers say so.