There’s a genuine debate this week about whether Fact To File will be supplemented for the Gold Cup, with Willie Mullins pointing out that JP McManus sees the situation differently to the press and the punters. That’s an interesting storyline. But the bigger question — the one that doesn’t get asked enough — is whether Galopin Des Champs can actually win a third Gold Cup at the age of ten.
We went back through the SmartForm database. The answer from the data is pretty stark.
The age wall
Since 2003, there have been 50 runners aged ten or older in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Winners: zero.
Not a low strike rate. Not unlucky. None.
The race has been won predominantly by seven and eight-year-olds — 17 winners combined from those two ages, accounting for more than three-quarters of the last 23 renewals. Nines can do it: Al Boum Photo (2019), Kauto Star (2009), Don Cossack, Synchronised. But ten? It simply hasn’t happened in the modern era.
| Age | Runners (since 2003) | Winners | Strike Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| 7 | 48 | 7 | 14.6% |
| 8 | 101 | 10 | 9.9% |
| 9 | 85 | 4 | 4.7% |
| 10 | 50 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 11+ | 27 | 0 | 0.0% |
That’s not a coincidence. By the time a top staying chaser hits double figures, the physical demands of the race — three and a quarter miles, twenty-two fences, against horses at their peak — start to tell.
What happened to the other dual winners
Galopin Des Champs isn’t the first horse to win the Gold Cup twice and come back for more. Two others in our data had similar profiles.
Al Boum Photo won back-to-back in 2019 and 2020. He returned at nine in 2021 and ran a solid third, which kept the dream alive. Then, at ten in 2022, he finished sixth. Starting price of 7/1, well fancied, but beaten a long way. He was fine, just not the same horse.
Kauto Star’s story is more complicated — he won in 2007, was second in 2008, won again in 2009. At ten in 2010, he pulled up. Connections brought him back at eleven and he was a gallant third, which tells you he was still a serious horse. But a winner at ten? Never got close.
The pattern is consistent: dual winners reach a ceiling. By the time they’re ten, the margins have closed.
Galopin Des Champs’ own numbers tell a similar story
His 2023 Gold Cup win at seven was as good a winning performance as you’ll see — he bolted up in soft ground, having already demolished the Irish Gold Cup field. His 2024 defence was imperious too, winning on heavy ground at Cheltenham in the hands of Paul Townend.
Then 2025. He was sent off at 1.62, almost unbackable, and finished six lengths behind Inothewayurthinkin. His first Gold Cup defeat, and a comprehensive one.
His current season reads: third in the John Durkan at Punchestown (November), third in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown on New Year’s Day, third in the Irish Gold Cup in February — beaten eight and a half lengths by Fact To File.
Three runs, three thirds. He’s not falling apart. He’s still in the conversation. But the progression that defined his career — the relentless winning at Grade 1 level, the feeling that he was just better than everything else — is gone.
The case for him
It’s not hopeless. Best Mate won the Gold Cup three times: 2002, 2003, 2004. But those were at ages seven, eight, and nine. His third win came at nine, not ten. Arkle won three times in the 1960s, but racing was different then and the horses ran fewer times.
Willie Mullins is clearly not writing him off, and Mullins has forgotten more about training Gold Cup horses than most of us will ever know. Galopin Des Champs is on an easier schedule than most seasons, and if he gets soft or heavy ground — conditions that suited his best performances — you can make a case.
And yes, the current Gold Cup favourite Inothewayurthinkin is also in questionable form heading into March. This isn’t necessarily a vintage year.
What the numbers actually say
History says no horse has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup at ten or older in the last 23 years. The two most comparable horses in recent times — both dual winners, both returning for a third crack — declined noticeably at this age. Galopin Des Champs’ own form over the last four months backs that story up.
None of this means he can’t win. Sample sizes are what they are, and Cheltenham has produced bigger shocks. But the price being talked about in the market doesn’t fully account for the headwinds. A ten-year-old chasing a historic third Gold Cup, having run three thirds this season and been beaten eight lengths last time out.
The data would want you cautious. Maybe more than cautious.