Marine Nationale won’t defend his Champion Chase crown. A sore neck, picked up overnight, means Barry Connell’s nine-year-old misses next Wednesday’s showpiece, and the horse who demolished Jonbon by 18 lengths last March won’t get the chance to do it again.
That leaves Majborough. Willie Mullins’ second-season chaser is now 8/11 with most firms, having strolled to a 19-length win in the Dublin Chase five weeks ago. On the face of it, that looks like a formality.
It isn’t. The Champion Chase has a specific and well-documented problem with short-priced favourites, and the numbers should give anyone thinking of backing Majborough at those odds serious pause.
The Odds-On Record
We pulled every Champion Chase result since 2009. In that time, 12 horses have gone off odds-on — shorter than even money. Only three of them won.
| Year | Horse | SP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Jonbon | 5/6 | 2nd |
| 2024 | El Fabiolo | 2/9 | Pulled up |
| 2022 | Shishkin | 5/6 | Pulled up |
| 2021 | Chacun Pour Soi | 8/13 | 3rd |
| 2020 | Defi Du Seuil | 2/5 | 4th |
| 2019 | Altior | 4/11 | Won |
| 2017 | Douvan | 2/9 | 7th |
| 2016 | Un De Sceaux | 4/6 | 2nd |
| 2013 | Sprinter Sacre | 1/4 | Won |
| 2012 | Sizing Europe | 4/5 | 2nd |
| 2010 | Master Minded | 4/5 | 4th |
| 2009 | Master Minded | 4/11 | Won |
Three winners from 12. A 25% strike rate for horses the market said had a 55-80% chance of winning. If you’d backed every odds-on favourite in the Champion Chase since 2009 to level stakes, you’d have lost roughly 40% of your outlay.
The three that did win? Sprinter Sacre, Altior, and Master Minded — generational two-mile chasers, the kind who come along once a decade. The question is whether Majborough is in that company. On three career chase starts, two of which he lost, it’s a stretch.
Majborough’s Cheltenham Question
There’s a specific worry, too. Majborough has run twice at the Cheltenham Festival and he’s one from two — but the loss was instructive. Sent off 1/2 for last year’s Arkle, he made a hash of the second last, lost his momentum, and finished third, beaten a short head by a pair of horses he was supposedly miles clear of on form.
He won the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival before that, so he clearly handles the track. But the Arkle showed he’s capable of errors under pressure on the New Course, and the Champion Chase won’t forgive them.
The Dublin Chase win was deeply impressive, granted. Nineteen lengths is nineteen lengths, and his jumping that day was slick. But Leopardstown’s flat, left-handed track is a different beast to Cheltenham’s undulations, and he’ll face more pace pressure here than he did in a four-runner Dublin field.
Who Benefits?
History says the value lies elsewhere. When short-priced Champion Chase favourites fail, the winners tend to come from between 5/1 and 17/2. Politologue (6/1 in 2020), Put The Kettle On (17/2 in 2021), Captain Guinness (17/2 in 2024), Marine Nationale himself (5/1 last year) — all landed the prize when the obvious one didn’t.
L’Eau Du Sud at 7/2 is interesting. He won the Shloer over course and distance by 15 lengths in November and finished fourth in last year’s Arkle, just three-quarters of a length behind Majborough. Il Etait Temps at 4/1 is a Grade 1 winner at the track, with a Tingle Creek victory to his name, though he pulled up at Ascot in January.
Neither is a certainty by any means. But the Champion Chase rewards pace, jumping accuracy, and Cheltenham experience in that order. Majborough has the pace. The other two boxes are less certain.
The Bottom Line
Marine Nationale’s withdrawal makes this look like a one-horse race. Historically, that’s exactly when the Champion Chase bites hardest. Three from 12 odds-on favourites winning since 2009 isn’t a quirk — it’s a pattern, driven by the unique demands of two miles at full tilt around Cheltenham.
Majborough might be brilliant enough to buck it. But at 8/11, the market is asking you to ignore 17 years of evidence.