Henderson's Supreme Factory: 61 Grade 1 Wins and Counting

Idaho Sun’s withdrawal from Tuesday’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle grabbed the headlines this week. A Grade 1 winner ruled out with lameness four days before the Festival — rotten luck for Harry Fry and connections.

But if you’re looking at who benefits most, the answer isn’t complicated. Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star was already 9/4 favourite. Now the path looks even cleaner. And when Henderson targets this race, the alumni list reads like a Hall of Fame.

The Numbers Are Absurd

We went through every Henderson runner in the Supreme since 2003. The horses he’s sent to this race — win or lose on the day — have collectively won 61 Grade 1 races across their careers.

Read that again. Sixty-one.

Here’s what Henderson’s Supreme runners went on to become:

That’s three Supreme winners who went on to be champion chasers or hurdlers, plus another six who turned into top-level performers regardless. The Supreme isn’t just a race Henderson wins — it’s where he introduces his best horses to the world.

Mullins has won seven Supremes to Henderson’s three, but Henderson’s strike rate for producing superstars from this race is in a different league.

Old Park Star’s Margins Look Familiar

This is what caught our eye in the SmartForm data. Old Park Star’s last three hurdles runs:

• Kempton maiden hurdle: won by 3 lengths
• Cheltenham novice hurdle: won by 12 lengths
• Haydock Rossington Main (Grade 2): won by 18 lengths

Now compare Constitution Hill’s three runs before he won the 2022 Supreme by 22 lengths:

• Sandown maiden hurdle: won by 14 lengths
• Sandown Tolworth (Grade 1): won by 12 lengths
• Cheltenham Supreme: won by 22 lengths

We’re not saying Old Park Star is Constitution Hill. That would be mad — Constitution Hill was a generational talent. But the trajectory is eerily similar: widening margins, a horse who’s getting better with every run, trained by the same man, aimed at the same race.

Old Park Star’s 18-length Haydock romp was under hands and heels from De Boinville. The in-race comment read “impressive.” Not “stayed on well” or “kept on gamely.” Impressive.

What About Mighty Park?

Willie Mullins throwing Mighty Park into the Supreme adds intrigue. The five-year-old won a Fairyhouse maiden hurdle by 38 lengths in January — the kind of margin that makes you double-check you’ve read it correctly. He wasn’t entered for Wednesday’s Turners, which screamed Supreme from the moment the six-day entries dropped.

The catch: that Fairyhouse race was his only run over hurdles. One run. Against what looked like a fairly moderate field of 16. Mullins has a habit of pulling rabbits out of hats in the Supreme — Douvan, Vautour, Champagne Fever, Klassical Dream, Appreciate It, Kopek Des Bordes — but even by his standards, sending a once-raced hurdler into the Festival opener would be a bold move.

The market has him at around 11/4. On our numbers, you’d want more than that for a horse with a single hurdles run, no matter who trains him.

The Bigger Picture

Since 2015, the Supreme has been dominated by Irish trainers — seven of eleven winners came from across the Irish Sea. Henderson’s two wins in that period (Constitution Hill, Shishkin) were both spectacular. He doesn’t just win this race; he tends to announce something special when he does.

Old Park Star fits that mould. Three wins from three over hurdles, each more dominant than the last, trained at Seven Barrows and ridden by the man who steered both Altior and Constitution Hill to Supreme glory. De Boinville in the Supreme is worth noting: his two rides in the race produced two winners, both by double-digit lengths.

Whether Old Park Star can justify 9/4 depends on how seriously you take those winning margins — and how much faith you put in Henderson’s extraordinary record of finding future champions through this one specific race.

Sixty-one Grade 1 wins. Three future champions. And a new horse whose margins keep getting wider.

The Supreme is 72 hours away.