Rebecca Curtis hasn’t had a runner in the Cheltenham Gold Cup before. In a couple of weeks, Haiti Couleurs will change that, and he’ll arrive via a route that most Gold Cup contenders wouldn’t touch: handicaps.
We pulled every Gold Cup winner since 2003 from our database and checked which ones had won a handicap chase in the 12 months before their crowning moment. Five had: Denman (Hennessy 2007), Bobs Worth (Hennessy 2012), Minella Indo (a Grade 3 handicap), Al Boum Photo (Savills New Year’s Day Chase), and last year’s winner Inothewayurthinkin, who’d won the Kim Muir at the previous Festival.
That’s five from 21 winners. Not nothing, but not the normal path either. The standard route is through the King George or the Irish Gold Cup, with an official rating already north of 170. Haiti Couleurs sits on 159.
The rating climb that matters
Here’s where it gets interesting. Haiti Couleurs was rated 115 when he won a Class 4 maiden hurdle at Chepstow in March 2024. He’s now 159. That’s a 44lb rise in under two years.
For context, we looked at every Gold Cup winner’s rating trajectory over the 18 months before their win. The biggest climbs:
| Winner | Year | Low OR (18m prior) | Gold Cup OR | Rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denman | 2008 | 150 | 176 | 26 |
| Synchronised | 2012 | 143 | 167 | 24 |
| Don Cossack | 2016 | 151 | 175 | 24 |
| Native River | 2018 | 145 | 166 | 21 |
| Inothewayurthinkin | 2025 | 144 | 160 | 16 |
Haiti Couleurs’ rise dwarfs all of them. Now, his 18-month window within SmartForm starts at around 135 (his novice chase mark), so it’s a 24lb climb by that measure. But the full journey from maiden hurdler to Gold Cup contender is something you rarely see at this level.
The Coneygree comparison
The horse he most resembles statistically is Coneygree, who won the 2015 Gold Cup off a rating of just 153. Coneygree had also won the Denman Chase on his previous start, just like Haiti Couleurs. Both were relatively lightly raced and both came from smaller yards.
There’s one difference worth noting. Coneygree was an 8-year-old on the way up with only nine career starts. Haiti Couleurs is a 9-year-old, though he’s still lightly raced enough (15 starts) that there could be more to come. Nine-year-olds have won the Gold Cup four times since 2003 — Don Cossack, Synchronised, Kauto Star, and Imperial Commander — so the age isn’t a problem.
Curtis at the Festival
Curtis knows how to get a horse ready for Cheltenham. She’s had six Festival winners from a relatively small operation in Pembrokeshire, including Lisnagar Oscar at 50/1 in the 2020 Stayers’ Hurdle and last year’s Festival win with Haiti Couleurs himself in the National Hunt Chase.
The horse’s Cheltenham record reads two starts, two wins. He also won on heavy ground in the Welsh Grand National and on good to soft when taking the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse. The only blot was a pulled-up run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but he clearly didn’t handle something that day and has bounced back emphatically.
What the numbers say
His Denman Chase win was visually impressive — he made all and went clear without being asked a serious question, beating L’Homme Presse easily on heavy ground. The official rating of 159 still looks below par for a Gold Cup winner. The average winning OR since 2003 is 169. Only Lord Windermere (152) and Coneygree (153) have won off a lower mark.
But here’s the thing. Both of those horses were improvers who outran their ratings on the day. Haiti Couleurs has been outrunning his mark all season. The Welsh Grand National win under top weight, then the Denman Chase — this is a horse still going the right way.
Whether 159 is enough against the likes of Galopin Des Champs remains to be seen. The data says it’s a stretch. The form trajectory says don’t rule it out.