Cheltenham Festival 2026 - Race Trends & Statistics

The Cheltenham Festival 2026 runs from Tuesday 10th March to Friday 13th March. We’ve pulled the historical data for every race on the programme and run the numbers. Below you’ll find links to the trend analysis for each race, organised by day.

These aren’t predictions — they’re what the data shows. Some trends are strong and consistent, others are based on small samples and should be treated with appropriate caution. We’ll flag which is which.

For course-level statistics including trainer records, jockey performance and going analysis, see our Cheltenham racecourse guide.

Tuesday - Day 1

• Supreme Novices’ Hurdle — Grade 1, 2m. The Festival opener for novice hurdlers.
• Arkle Chase — Grade 1, 2m. Novice chase championship. 48% favourite strike rate.
• Ultima Handicap Chase — Premier Handicap, 3m1f. Lucinda Russell has won 3 of the last 4.
• Champion Hurdle — Grade 1, 2m. The hurdling championship. Best race for favourites (52% strike rate).
• Mares’ Hurdle — Grade 1, 2m4f. Dominated by Mullins’ mares.
• Boodles Juvenile Hurdle — Handicap, 2m1f. Average winning SP of 22/1 — the hardest race to solve.
• Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase — 2m4f. Historical data (2005-2020).

Wednesday - Day 2

• Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle — Grade 1, 2m5f. Intermediate-distance novice championship.
• Weatherbys Champion Bumper — Grade 1, 2m. Mullins has won 9 of 20 renewals.
• Champion Chase — Grade 1, 2m. The two-mile chasing crown.
• Cross Country Chase — 3m6f. A specialist’s race. Gordon Elliott’s 5 wins.
• Coral Cup — Handicap Hurdle, 2m5f. Big fields, big prices — average winning SP of 18/1.
• Mares’ Chase — Grade 2, 2m4f. New race, small sample. All 5 winners Irish-trained.

Thursday - Day 3

• Stayers’ Hurdle — Grade 1, 3m. Seven-year-olds have won 7 of 11.
• Ryanair Chase — Grade 1, 2m5f. Mullins has won 6 of 20.
• Plate Chase — Handicap Chase, 2m4½f. Older horses do well — 5 winners aged 10+.
• Pertemps Final — Handicap Hurdle, 3m. Qualification required. Average winning SP of 19/1.
• Kim Muir Chase — Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase, 3m2f.

Friday - Day 4

• Gold Cup — Grade 1, 3m2½f. The blue riband. Eight-year-olds have won half.
• Triumph Hurdle — Grade 1, 2m1f. Juvenile championship. Mullins has won 5 of the last 6.
• County Hurdle — Premier Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f. Mullins 8 wins, Skelton 4.
• Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle — Grade 1, 3m. Favourite wins just 11% of the time.
• Grand Annual Chase — Handicap Chase, 2m. Average winning SP of 17/1.
• Martin Pipe Hurdle — Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap, 2m4f. Worst favourite record at the Festival (6%).
• Hunters’ Chase — 3m2½f. Amateur riders. Ten-year-olds have the best record.
• Fred Winter — Historical data (2007-2018). Now replaced by the Boodles.

Quick Reference: Favourite Strike Rates

The races where the favourite wins most often, and least often:

Best for favourites:

1. Gold Cup — 55%
2. Champion Hurdle — 52%
3. Arkle Chase — 48%
4. Ballymore — 56% (small sample)
5. Cross Country — 43%

Worst for favourites:

1. Martin Pipe — 6%
2. Coral Cup — 9%
3. Pertemps Final — 9%
4. Albert Bartlett — 11%
5. Grand Annual — 13%

The pattern is clear: championship races favour the market leader, handicaps don’t.