Data on The Race Lab

Henderson vs Nicholls at Cheltenham: The Numbers Might Surprise You

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0000

Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are two of the biggest names in British jump racing. Both train large strings, both target Cheltenham as the centrepiece of their season. But their recent records at Prestbury Park tell very different stories.

The Raw Numbers (Since 2020)

Trainer	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate
N J Henderson	337	44	13.1%
P F Nicholls	102	5	4.9%

Henderson has been three times more effective at Cheltenham than Nicholls over the past five years. That’s a stark difference between two yards operating at similar levels of resource and reputation.

The Jockey-Course Combos That Should Be on Your Radar

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 14:00:00 +0000

Some jockeys at certain tracks aren’t just good — they’re operating at a level that should make them automatic considerations. Our database of results since 2022 reveals the jockey-course combinations with the highest strike rates from a minimum of 40 rides.

The Headline: Moore at Chester

Ryan Moore at Chester: 21 winners from 44 rides — 47.7%.

That’s not a typo. Nearly every other horse Moore rides at Chester wins. The tight, undulating Chester track demands precision and experience, and Moore has both in abundance. When he books a Chester ride, the market knows it — but even accounting for short prices, that strike rate is extraordinary.

All-Weather Tracks Compared: Where the Winners Come From

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 12:00:00 +0000

All-weather racing keeps the show on the road through winter, and it’s easy to treat the five main AW tracks as interchangeable. They’re not. Our analysis of over 111,000 runners across the big five since 2022 shows meaningful differences.

The Win Rate Table

Course	Runners	Winners	Win Rate	Avg Field Size
Lingfield	19,018	2,117	11.1%	9.1
Newcastle	23,170	2,440	10.5%	9.8
Wolverhampton	25,787	2,688	10.4%	9.5
Southwell	22,594	2,298	10.2%	9.8
Kempton	20,578	2,065	10.0%	10.1

Lingfield: The Specialist’s Track

Lingfield tops the table at 11.1%, and the reason is structural. With the smallest average field size (9.1 runners), there are simply fewer horses to beat. The Polytrack surface at Lingfield also tends to produce more predictable results — form holds up better here than on Fibresand or Tapeta.

The 15-30 Day Sweet Spot: What Race Fitness Really Means in Jump Racing

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 10:00:00 +0000

“He’ll be fitter for that run.” It’s a phrase you hear after almost every moderate performance over jumps. But does the data actually support the idea that recently-run horses have an edge? We looked at over 193,000 jump racing performances since 2022 to find out.

The Results

Days Since Last Run	Runners	Winners	Win Rate
1-14 days	25,229	2,283	9.0%
15-30 days	68,317	7,354	10.8%
31-60 days	51,818	5,530	10.7%
61-90 days	12,103	1,054	8.7%
90+ days	35,691	3,215	9.0%

The sweet spot is clear: 15-30 days between runs produces the highest win rate at 10.8%, with 31-60 days virtually identical at 10.7%.

Understanding Going in Horse Racing

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The going is the official description of how soft or firm the ground is. It sounds simple enough, but going is one of the most underrated factors in horse racing. We’ve seen plenty of punters spend an hour studying form and forget to check whether their fancy actually handles the ground. That’s a costly oversight.

The going scale

On turf in the UK, the going descriptions run from driest to wettest:

10 Years of Cheltenham Festival Data: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

10 Years of Cheltenham Festival Data: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

We’ve crunched a decade of Cheltenham Festival results — every race from 2016 to 2025 — to find the patterns that matter. Not punditry. Not hunches. Just data.

Here’s what 425 races and thousands of runners actually tell us.

Favourite Win Rate: Better Than You Think

The festival’s reputation for shocks is partly myth. Over ten years, favourites won 30.6% of all races — meaning roughly one in three races is won by the market leader.