Fact to File on The Race Lab

Heart Wood Wins the Ryanair Chase: De Bromhead's Quiet Cheltenham Dominance

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Heart Wood won the 2026 Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham this afternoon, giving Henry de Bromhead his first winner of this year’s Festival. Jonbon, stepping up from two miles, couldn’t land the blow, and the absence of last year’s winner Fact To File — withdrawn on the morning of the race — reshaped the whole contest.

It was a result most people didn’t see coming. But if you’d been tracking de Bromhead’s record in this specific race, you might have.

Galopin Des Champs Out: The Gold Cup Has No Obvious Winner

Sun, 08 Mar 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Willie Mullins confirmed it on Sunday morning: Galopin Des Champs is out for the season. Worked well on Thursday, wasn’t right on Friday. That’s racing.

But the timing — five days before the Gold Cup — turns what was already a fascinating renewal into something genuinely unusual. We went through 20 years of Gold Cup data in SmartForm, and there’s no modern comparison for a field this open.

The favourite problem

Since 2006, the Gold Cup favourite has won nine times from 20 runnings. That’s a decent 45% strike rate. But look at the winners: Galopin Des Champs (twice, at 7/5 and 10/11), Kauto Star (5/4 and 7/4), A Plus Tard (3/1), Long Run (7/2). Proven, dominant horses at the peak of their powers.

The Numbers Behind Walsh's Ryanair Hunch: Why the Data Backs a Gold Cup Swerve

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Ruby Walsh doesn’t do throwaway lines. So when he says one of Gaelic Warrior or Fact To File will “definitely” end up in the Ryanair Chase rather than the Gold Cup, it’s worth pulling the form book apart to see what the numbers say.

Speaking on the Paddy Power ‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ podcast, Walsh drew a comparison with Florida Pearl — a horse who dominated at Leopardstown but never quite got the Gold Cup trip. His conclusion: the extra two furlongs and a couple of yards at Cheltenham’s 3m2½f might just find one of them out.