The Numbers Behind Walsh's Ryanair Hunch: Why the Data Backs a Gold Cup Swerve

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 18:00:00 +0000

Ruby Walsh doesn’t do throwaway lines. So when he says one of Gaelic Warrior or Fact To File will “definitely” end up in the Ryanair Chase rather than the Gold Cup, it’s worth pulling the form book apart to see what the numbers say.

Speaking on the Paddy Power ‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ podcast, Walsh drew a comparison with Florida Pearl — a horse who dominated at Leopardstown but never quite got the Gold Cup trip. His conclusion: the extra two furlongs and a couple of yards at Cheltenham’s 3m2½f might just find one of them out.

Ruby Walsh on The Race Lab

The Numbers Behind Walsh's Ryanair Hunch: Why the Data Backs a Gold Cup Swerve