Statistics on The Race Lab

Panic Attack's Grand National Dream: The Numbers For and Against

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

No horse had ever won both the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Coral Gold Cup in the same season. Then Panic Attack did it inside a fortnight.

We went through every winner of both races in the SmartForm database. Not one horse had doubled up in a single campaign — until this ten-year-old mare rattled off victories at Cheltenham on November 15th and Newbury on November 29th, improving from a rating of 135 to what is now 147 after her stroll in a Listed mares’ chase at Newbury in January.

The Numbers Behind Dan Skelton's Trainers' Championship Charge

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 17:00:00 +0000

Dan Skelton doesn’t do press conferences. He doesn’t cultivate mystique. He just sends out horses — a lot of them — and an increasingly alarming percentage of them win.

With the season entering its business end, Skelton sits clear in the Trainers’ Championship race, and SmartForm data shows why: 127 winners from 762 runners this season at a 16.7% strike rate, with an extraordinary 43.3% of his runners finishing in the first three.

Why Handicap Debutants Are Worth a Second Look

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 08:45:00 +0000

The handicap system exists to level the playing field. Horses carry weight according to their ability, theoretically giving every runner an equal chance. But what happens when a horse steps into handicaps for the first time?

Conventional wisdom says wait and see. The logic runs that a horse needs a few handicap runs before its true mark is established. Our analysis of over 340,000 handicap races suggests this caution is misplaced.

The 30-Day Horse: What Fitness Really Tells Us

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 09:30:00 +0000

Punters love debating fitness. Is a fresh horse sharper than a battle-hardened one? Does a long break help or hinder? We analysed over half a million runs from the past four years to settle the argument.

The 30-day window—roughly 25 to 35 days since last run—produces the best results. Horses returning in this bracket win 10.68% of the time, comfortably ahead of any other category. Their average starting price of 23/1 suggests the market has not quite caught on to the pattern.

The Cheltenham Festival Trainers Who Punch Above Their Weight

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 08:00:00 +0000

March means one thing in the racing calendar: Cheltenham Festival. While the spotlight falls on the big yards with their battalions of runners, the data tells a more interesting story about who actually delivers when it matters.

Over the past five years, Charles Byrnes has sent just 16 runners to Cheltenham and saddled three winners. That 18.75% strike rate tops the lot when you filter for trainers with a meaningful sample size. Byrnes does not flood the entry system—he targets. His horses average 15.6/1, so he is not landing short-priced favourites either. These are proper value strikes.

10 Years of Cheltenham Festival Data: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

10 Years of Cheltenham Festival Data: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

We’ve crunched a decade of Cheltenham Festival results — every race from 2016 to 2025 — to find the patterns that matter. Not punditry. Not hunches. Just data.

Here’s what 425 races and thousands of runners actually tell us.

Favourite Win Rate: Better Than You Think

The festival’s reputation for shocks is partly myth. Over ten years, favourites won 30.6% of all races — meaning roughly one in three races is won by the market leader.